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Mon, 05 Jun 2023 17:10:00 +0000 Goldman Sachs Warns ESG Investors Against Rushing To Divest From Oil And Gas
Goldman Sachs Warns ESG Investors Against Rushing To Divest From Oil And Gas
Goldman Sachs Warns ESG Investors Against Rushing To Divest From Oil And Gas
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Investors focused on the ESG rush to divest from oil and gas should focus instead on investment in renewables and other forms of low-carbon energy supply, Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs’s head of natural resources research, told Bloomberg on Monday.
“The focus on decarbonization is correct, but I think it needs to be driven by more investment, not divestment, ” Della Vigna told Bloomberg in an interview.
“The key is to move away from divesting oil and gas towards more investment in renewables and in low carbon.”
The ESG investors need to quickly ramp up investment in renewables to prevent a collapse in the overall energy supply, according to Goldman’s Della Vigna.
The investment bank sees capex on energy increasing by 15% in 2023, or by as much as 30%, considering inflation.
“What needs to happen is an acceleration of renewable spending on one side, but also normalization of the spending in hydrocarbons on the other,” Della Vigna told Bloomberg.
Earlier this year, the chief executive of the world’s largest oil firm, Saudi Aramco, said that ESG investment, if outright biased against the oil and gas industry, is a threat to energy affordability and energy security.
“In my view, an increased emphasis on ESG is a move in the right direction,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser said in February.
“However, if ESG-driven policies are implemented with an automatic bias against any and all conventional energy projects, the resulting underinvestment will have serious implications. For the global economy. For energy affordability. And for energy security,” Aramco’s top executive added.
Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that investment in solar power generation is set to eclipse investment in oil production in 2023 for the first time ever. For 2023, the IEA expects total investments in energy at $2.8 trillion, of which $1.74 trillion will go to clean energy and technologies and the remaining $1.05 trillion to fossil fuels.
“For every dollar invested in fossil fuels, about 1.7 dollars are now going into clean energy. Five years ago, this ratio was one-to-one,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
The underinvestment in the energy sector “is very concerning,” Della Vigna said. “And although energy CapEx is rising, I don’t think it’s rising fast enough to fill in the gap of 10 years of underinvestment.”
He also questioned ESG investors’ tendency to focus on absolute emissions as a guide for allocating capital, rather than emissions intensity, which measures an entity’s carbon footprint relative to its total revenue.
“Anything that pushes companies to produce less energy, like just focusing on absolute emissions, for them, I think, runs the risk of prolonging this energy crisis,” he said.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 13:10 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 16:50:00 +0000 Apple Hits All-Time-High Ahead Of AR/VR Headset Launch
Apple Hits All-Time-High Ahead Of AR/VR Headset Launch
Apple Hits All-Time-High Ahead Of AR/VR Headset Launch
Just days after Meta unveiled it Quest 3 VR/AR headset (at an entry level price), Tim Cook is set to launch a high-end mixed-reality headset at today's Worldwide Developer's Conference.
As Engadget reports , Apple has been developing the device for many years, according to reports. The headset, said to be called the Reality Pro, is the company's most notable product launch at least since the arrival of the Apple Watch in 2015 .
However, at an expected price of $3,000 , the first version of the headset could be one primarily for early adopters.
"Consensus opinion is the headset would cost $3,000. Apple could surprise positively with a lower price. With a historical focus on design, creativity, collaboration, and fitness we view killer apps to focus on these areas or a combination of such," Bank of America's Wasmi Mohan said.
While Mohan rates Apple at "Neutral," he raised his price target to $190 from $176 on Monday, suggesting further upside of 5% from Friday's close.
"Apple best positioned to dominate mixed reality [market]," Mohan said.
As we noted previously, according to estimates from Statista Market Insights , users of AR and VR devices are still few and far between, with growth projections until 2027 nowhere near the scale that would make mixed reality “the next computing platform”, at least for now.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Statista estimates that 98 million people will be using VR hardware this year, while 23 million will be dabbling with more advanced AR technology. By 2027, both AR and VR are expected to have surpassed 100 million users worldwide, but that’s still a longshot from the billions of smartphone users across the planet.
Apple's share price surged to a new record high today...
But we note, due to buybacks, this is not the largest market cap the company has ever had - but it's getting close again to that $3 trillion level...
Watch the Apple launch event live here (due to start at 1300ET):
VIDEO
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 12:50 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 16:45:00 +0000 "Real Intent Here Appears To Be To Make Headlines" - Binance Responds To SEC, Bitcoin Extends Losses
"Real Intent Here Appears To Be To Make Headlines" - Binance Responds To SEC, Bitcoin Extends Losses
Update (1240ET) : Binance has responded to the SEC allegations in a blog post: Read more.....
"Real Intent Here Appears To Be To Make Headlines" - Binance Responds To SEC, Bitcoin Extends Losses
Update (1240ET) : Binance has responded to the SEC allegations in a blog post: "SEC Complaint Aims to Unilaterally Define Crypto Market Structure"
We are disappointed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chose to file a complaint today against Binance seeking, among other remedies, purported emergency relief. From the start, we have actively cooperated with the SEC’s investigations and have worked hard to answer their questions and address their concerns. Most recently, we have engaged in extensive good-faith discussions to reach a negotiated settlement to resolve their investigations. But despite our efforts, with its complaint today the SEC abandoned that process and instead chose to act unilaterally and litigate. We are disheartened by that choice.
While we take the SEC’s allegations seriously, they should not be the subject of an SEC enforcement action, let alone on an emergency basis. We intend to defend our platform vigorously. Unfortunately, the SEC’s refusal to productively engage with us is just another example of the Commission’s misguided and conscious refusal to provide much-needed clarity and guidance to the digital asset industry.
Today’s action is another in a line of examples where, as with other crypto projects facing similar suits, the Commission has determined to regulate with the blunt weapons of enforcement and litigation rather than the thoughtful, nuanced approach demanded by this dynamic and complex technology. Unilaterally labeling certain tokens and services as securities – even ones over which other U.S. authorities have asserted jurisdiction – only compounds these problems.
Perhaps most surprising, the SEC’s actions undermine America’s role as a global hub for financial innovation and leadership . Digital asset laws remain largely undeveloped in much of the world, and regulation by enforcement is not the best path forward. An effective regulatory framework demands collaborative, transparent, and thoughtful policy engagement—a path the SEC has abandoned.
And, to be clear: any allegations that user assets on the Binance.US platform have ever been at risk are simply wrong, and there is zero justification for the Staff’s action in light of the ample time the Staff has had to conduct their investigation. All user assets on Binance and Binance affiliate platforms, including Binance.US, are safe and secure, and we will vigorously defend against any allegations to the contrary. Rather, the SEC’s actions here appear to be in service of an effort to rush to claim jurisdictional ground from other regulators—and investors do not appear to be the SEC’s priority. Because of our size and global name recognition, Binance is an easy target now caught in the middle of a U.S. regulatory tug-of-war.
It seems based on these developments that the SEC’s goal here was never to protect investors; if that were truly the case, the Staff would have thoughtfully engaged with us on the facts and in our efforts to demonstrate the safety and security of the Binance.US platform. The SEC’s real intent here, instead, appears to be to make headlines.
We will continue to cooperate with regulators and policymakers in the U.S. and across the globe because that is the right thing to do. And Binance remains committed to productive engagement to ensure the next generation of cryptocurrency regulation fosters innovation while implementing and ensuring important consumer protections . Because Binance is not a U.S. exchange, the SEC’s actions are limited in reach. Still, we stand with digital asset market participants in the U.S. in opposition to the SEC’s latest overreach, and we are prepared to fight it to the full extent of the law.
We will work alongside industry partners to defend this important technology from misguided lawsuits. And we will maintain our unceasing efforts to deliver a safe and trusted platform for our users that holds true to our core value of furthering the freedom of money.
Bitcoin continues to plunge...
* * *
In a not-so-surprising headline, WSJ reports that the SEC on Monday sued Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, alleging the overseas company operated an illegal exchange in the U.S.
The SEC lawsuit also named Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s founder and controlling shareholder, as a defendant. The SEC filed the case in federal court in the District of Columbia.
As a reminder, the CFTC sued Binance and Zhao himself in late March for allegedly violating derivatives regulations , and accused it of having “sham” compliance.
Binance also faces a Justice Department investigation over its program to detect money laundering, according to people familiar with the matter.
As usual, the initial kneejerk reaction to any regulatory headline is to 'sell' crypto.
Bitcoin is extending losses below $27,000...
And Ethereum accelerated below $1900...
Binance own token BNB is plunging...
Additionally, Bloomberg reports that Binance’s payments partner in Australia had abruptly cut it off , meaning local customers couldn’t deposit Aussie dollars on the platform via bank transfer.
The hit to business was immediate, with Binance halting all Aussie trading pairs about two weeks later, along with bank withdrawals of the local currency.
Add one more headache to the swelling list of challenges facing Richard Teng, the civil servant-turned-crypto executive who’s seen as a possible heir to Binance’s embattled chief executive officer , billionaire Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
Binance still handles more trading than all other top centralized crypto exchanges combined, yet never has its position seemed so precarious.
In a tweet, Zhao said Binance hadn’t seen the complaint and would respond once it did.
“Our team is all standing by, ensuring systems are stable, including withdrawals, and deposits,” he added, referring to the possibility of customers pulling funds.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 12:45 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 16:30:00 +0000 What's The Fundamental Problem In China, The US, And The EU?
What's The Fundamental Problem In China, The US, And The EU?
What's The Fundamental Problem In China, The US, And The EU?
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Here's a Tweet that caught my eye regarding the "fundamental problem" in China. What about the US and EU?
Fundamental Problem in China
"The fundamental problem — that Chinese people paid excessive prices for real estate because they thought the price would always go up — remains. And that means that someone will eventually have to take the losses."
Someone Will Have to Take the Losses
Noah accurately comments that "someone will eventually have to take the losses."
In China, the government refuses to support consumption. Instead, it repeatedly turns to real estate and exports for growth, pilling on losses upon losses in State Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
In the US we have commercial real estate problems, overprices houses, and overpriced equities.
Someone will have to take the losses, notably pension plans that are massively underfunded despite three consecutive stock market bubbles.
But is That the Fundamental Problem?
Hardly. The fundamental problem everywhere is an unsound currency system that promotes bubbles as a means of growth.
The fundamental problem propagates differently in different place.
China has massive property bubbles. The US has untenable deficit spending issues and many bubbles, yet, still tries to be the world's policeman, while weaponizing the US dollar on top of it all.
In the EU, Germany and Northern Europe largely dictate what happens in a core vs periphery issue.
The EU has an additional problem: The Maastricht treaty, the EMU, and EU rules make it nearly impossible to fix anything without unanimous consent of all the nations involved.
Central banks everywhere are guilty of promoting bubbles and busts of increasing amplitude.
The Fundamental Problem
The fundamental problem is best viewed as a combination of unsound currencies, unsound central bank policies, and unsound fiscal policies that manifest in different ways in different countries.
But every country has the same thing in common: "someone will eventually have to take the losses."
That we are in such a quagmire over that unavoidable truth is not the problem. It's a symptom of the primary underlying problem, unsound currencies, everywhere.
Global Japanification and a Currency Crisis on Deck
A fundamental strength of capitalism is ability to succeed and fail.
We do not have capitalism when central banks and governments act to prevent losses. Nonetheless, the losses and distortions continue to mount or are papered over at taxpayer expense.
Japanification of the global economy has largely been the result, more so in Japan and the EU, than the US. Japanification of China is happening now.
A currency crisis of some sort awaits, as every country, but in different ways, is hell bent on preventing someone from taking the losses.
I think that the crisis starts outside the US. Likely places include Japan, China, or the EU, but it could start anywhere.
Dollar Weaponization Will Speed Up the Crisis
One thing I am certain about is dollar weaponization by the Fed will speed up the timeline.
For discussion, please see Dollar Weaponization Expands - FDIC Message to Foreign Depositors Is Don't Trust the US
Also see Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Pace, What Does That Mean for Inflation?
Just don't expect immediate results. We have been on an unsustainable path for decades.
Don't underestimate the willingness or ability of central banks to kick the can down the road. No one knows when, or what the trigger will be.
Do expect more global Japanification.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 12:30 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 16:10:00 +0000 'People Of Interest' Within Government Suppressed Critical Intelligence Before J6
'People Of Interest' Within Government Suppressed Critical Intelligence Before J6
'People Of Interest' Within Government Suppressed Critical Intelligence Before J6
One day before the January 6th riot, then-President Donald Trump suggested to Defense Secretary Christopher Miller; "You're going to need 10,000 people " to secure the Capitol from protesters challenging the results of the 2020 election.
“And [Trump] goes, ‘You’re going to need 10,000 people.’ No, I’m not talking bullshit . He said that. And we’re like, ‘Maybe. But you know, someone’s going to have to ask for it.’” At that point Miller remembered the president telling him, “‘You do what you need to do. You do what you need to do.’ He said, ‘You’re going to need 10,000.’ That’s what he said. Swear to God.”-Vanity Fair
Now we learn that "people of interest" within the US intelligence community may have suppressed specific information forewarning of violence on that fateful day .
As Just the News reports, Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA) - the lawmaker leading the investigation into security failures leading up to January 6th - said in a recent interview with Just the News that the Capitol Police intelligence unit had received a significant amount of detailed information in the weeks and days leading up to the event, that specific extremist groups planned to commit violence on Jan. 6, 2021 .
"We do know that the security failure began with an intelligence failure ," Loudermilk told JTN on Friday. "We have uncovered that there was significant intelligence that was provided to the intelligence division of the Capitol Police, starting in the beginning of December, all the way up through the morning of Jan. 6.
"Some of that intelligence actually laid out what the operational plan of some extreme groups were to enter the Capitol, take over Congress, even kill some Capitol police if they had to ," he continued. "This made it to the Intelligence Division. But it never made it any further. Even the chief of Capitol Police was not made aware of that level of intelligence."
According to Loudermilk, his House Administration investigative subcommittee has made 'substantial progress' in identifying the specific individuals who may have suppressed or mishandled the intelligence.
"Who was involved in this? Was it one person that just squelched the intelligence? Was it just a massive failure? Was it because of incompetence, or was it somebody who purposely suppressed that intelligence?" he asked. "There's actually some people of interest that we're talking to, and we're looking into to see where that failure was."
Answering these questions is key to better protecting the Capitol in the future.
"The frontline officers, man, they fought valiantly that day," he said. "But they were ill equipped. They were not prepared, and none of them knew what was coming. But there were certain people in the Capitol Police that did."
Just the News reported last year that federal and local law enforcement partners sent Capitol Police significant intelligence warnings of violence days and weeks ahead of the Jan. 6 event, including specific threats by groups like Oath Keepers and Proud Boys and warnings that the tunnel system throughout the Capitol might be targeted. The warnings though did not get sent up the chain of command to Chief Sund.
And just three days after the Jan. 6 Capitol breach, one of the Capitol Police's top intelligence analysts sent a blistering email to supervisors, blowing the whistle on what he said was a failure to heed clear intelligence warning that right-wing rioters planned to storm the Capitol. -Just the News
"We analysts have been reporting for weeks that Patriot groups are commenting on social media their intentions to storm the U.S. Capitol with overwhelming numbers ," wrote Eric Hoar in a Jan. 9, 2021 email to his bosses. "I don't know what was occurring behind the scenes, but I hope that information was briefed with the veracity it deserved, and not just a one-time Event Assessment."
Loudermilk is also looking into the Democrat-led J6 committee , and says he's found some shocking evidence that many of its public hearings were mismanaged .
"We found out in the in the documents that I acquired from the Jan. 6 committee is the written script of every member of the committee. Just like you would have on a teleprompter or if you memorize a script for a movie," he told JTN . "And so every single aspect of their hearings was scripted for a Hollywood type of emotional appeal to the American people."
He added that Republicans currently running the House committee are taking a different approach.
"We just recently had a hearing with the chief of the Capitol Police. There was nothing scripted about it," he said. "We did have certain questions that we wanted to ask, but each member had their questions. The chief wasn't given a script in advance. … These hearings from the January 6 Select Committee were Hollywood productions."
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 12:10 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 15:50:00 +0000 Parent Complaint About 'Pornography' Gets Bible Yanked From Utah School Districts
Parent Complaint About 'Pornography' Gets Bible Yanked From Utah School Districts
Parent Complaint About 'Pornography' Gets Bible Yanked From Utah School Districts
Authored by Dave Huber via The College Fix,
Committee decides to remove it from elementary, middle schools...
A Utah parent’s official complaint from late last year about “pornography” in the Bible finally got the book removed from elementary and middle schools in the state’s second-largest school district.
According to NBC News , the parent wasn’t really upset about alleged pornography, but rather the “bad faith process” by which books can be pulled from the state’s public schools.
A 2022 state law streamlined the process by which “pornographic or indecent” material can be removed.
“Incest, onanism, bestiality, prostitution, genital mutilation, fellatio, dildos, rape, and even infanticide […] you’ll no doubt find that the Bible,” the parent’s complaint reads.
“I thank the Utah Legislature and Utah Parents United for making this bad faith process so much easier and way more efficient […] now we can all ban books and you don’t even need to read them or be accurate about it. Heck, you don’t even need to see the book!”
As noted by KSL-TV , odd-numbered district review committees are comprised of at least four district personnel (including an English teacher and librarian) and “a minimum” of four parents.
The Davis School District Libraries website notes under its “Sensitive Materials” section that a committee decided the Bible does not include such material under Utah code. However, it also says the book will be “retained for high school.”
Davis Communication Director Christopher Williams said “seven to eight elementary and junior high schools” had the Bible in their libraries prior to the committee’s decision; he added that the committee “decided to retain the book in school library circulation only at the high school level based on age appropriateness due to vulgarity or violence.”
The Davis School Board will have the final say on what to do with the Bible. An appeal on the committee decision to move the book out of elementary and middle schools was made last Wednesday.
As noted by The Daily Wire , the Utah situation “follows a host of complaints around the country about sexually explicit books being available at school libraries,” most especially at the elementary and middle/junior high level. Two such books are “Let’s Talk About It ” and “Gender Queer .”
American Library Association Office for Intellectual Freedom Director Deborah Caldwell-Stone told NBC News that “Librarians have a professional responsibility to be inclusive rather than exclusive in developing their collections, and should address all information concerns of all those who use the library, including their religious information needs.”
She added that the Utah situation show how “efforts to suppress and censor library materials narrows educational opportunities and harms students’ access to information.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 11:50 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 15:20:00 +0000 Nuclear Power May Become Crucial In Decarbonization Efforts
Nuclear Power May Become Crucial In Decarbonization Efforts
Nuclear Power May Become Crucial In Decarbonization Efforts
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Nuclear power generation could help the world decarbonize energy amid growing global demand for electricity.
Despite growing government support for nuclear energy in several countries, the economics of nuclear energy at its current state of development and innovation just doesn’t add up.
WoodMac: the biggest economic hurdle to the widescale adoption of SMRs is cost.
Nuclear power generation could help the world decarbonize energy amid growing global demand for electricity with the ‘electrify everything’ push, including in transportation.
The energy crisis of the past year and a half has led to increased support for nuclear power in many countries, including the U.S., the UK, and even Japan.
But negative perceptions are still entrenched, and nuclear costs are still much higher than the cost of providing wind and solar power. What wind and solar don’t currently have is stable baseload capacity to ensure a constant supply of electricity regardless of the weather. Nuclear power can do that, and its low lifecycle emissions can generate additional low-emission electricity to complement wind and solar energy.
Electricity Demand Set To Surge
Currently, electricity meets some 20% of the total global energy demand, but “Over the next 30 years, almost everything that can be electrified will,” Wood Mackenzie said in a recent report .
By 2050, the share of electricity in the world’s energy mix could more than double to 50%, and the need for power generation could be 1.7 times higher than current levels, according to WoodMac’s base case.
Under the same base case, nuclear power capacity is set to increase by 280 gigawatts (GW) by 2050.
Despite growing government support for nuclear energy in several countries, the economics of nuclear energy at its current state of development and innovation just doesn’t add up. Conventional nuclear power reactors and stations require billions of upfront investment and often face project cost overruns, while the next-generation reactors and small modular reactors are not cost-competitive now, either.
The Cost Challenge To Nuclear Renaissance
“The biggest economic hurdle to the uptake of the latest nuclear and small modular reactors (SMRs) is cost,” WoodMac said in its report.
If nuclear is set to play a role in the energy transition and decarbonization, lower costs—alongside greater social acceptance—will be key, the consultancy said.
Conventional nuclear power generated with pressurized water reactors (PWR) currently has a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at least four times that of wind and solar, per WoodMac’s estimates.
“The nuclear industry will have to address the cost challenge with urgency if it is to participate in the huge growth opportunity that low-carbon power presents. At current levels, the cost gap is just too great for nuclear to grow rapidly,” said David Brown, Director, Energy Transition Service at Wood Mackenzie, and lead author of the report.
The current costs of small modular reactors (SMRs), which analysts and governments believe could be the future of nuclear power, is even higher than the current generation of PWRs and much higher than wind, solar, natural gas, and coal power generation.
The promise of SMRs is that it’s a shorter-cycle approach and could avoid some of the manufacturing and commissioning pitfalls that giant PWR projects have encountered, WoodMac notes.
“SMRs are designed to be modular, factory-assembled and scalable. They are expected to be quicker to market, with a target construction time of three to five years compared with the ‘nameplate’ 10 years needed to build a large PWR,” Brown says.
Small Modular Reactors
The key to at-scale adoption of SMRs will be how fast costs could fall and potentially make this type of nuclear energy generation cost-competitive with other forms of energy, especially renewables.
Many companies are already working on SMRs and governments in the U.S., UK, and France, for example, bet on this type of technology and support its research and development.
Westinghouse is already seeking pre-application Regulatory Engagement Plan with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for its small modular reactor (SMR) called AP300 and using the technology of its flagship AP1000 reactor. The advanced passive safety system automatically achieves safe shutdown without operator action and eliminates the need for backup power and cooling supply, Westinghouse says , adding that “this also directly translates into a simplified design, lower CAPEX and smaller footprint.”
Design certification is anticipated by 2027, followed by site-specific licensing and construction on the first unit toward the end of the decade.
SMRs could also be used in industries to cut emissions that are hard to abate. For example, new research from NuScale Power showed this week the capabilities of NuScale SMRs for reducing emissions in industrial sectors.
UK’s Rolls-Royce plc said earlier this year it had progressed to Step 2 of the Generic Design Assessment (GDA) for its SMR, following the successful completion of the first step in the assessment by the UK’s independent nuclear regulators. The milestone puts Rolls-Royce SMR ahead of other designs in securing consent for an SMR to operate in the UK. Rolls-Royce says its ‘factory-built’ SMR power plant can generate 470 MW of low-carbon electricity – enough to power a million homes for at least 60 years.
With technological advances, SMRs may have the chance to see lower costs in the future, but cost is not the only hurdle where nuclear energy is concerned.
Greater public support, expansion and diversification of the uranium supply chain, and strong offtake agreements for nuclear power would also be vital for this type of low-emission energy source to play a more important role in the energy transition.
“Expanding public support for nuclear will be critical to expanding investment; voters will need to embrace the value proposition of nuclear for it to have a social licence to operate,” WoodMac’s Brown said.
“This is not as unrealistic as it sounds: today’s nuclear industry grew out of the energy security concerns and high commodity prices of the 1970s ? similar market dynamics to those we face today.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 11:20 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 15:10:00 +0000 Key Events This Week: Quiet Ahead Of Next Week's Storm
Key Events This Week: Quiet Ahead Of Next Week's Storm
Key Events This Week: Quiet Ahead Of Next Week's Storm
The week after payrolls is almost always a bit quiet for data and this week DB's Jim Reid reminds us that we have the added kicker of a Fed that has started their media blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC which will be preceded by a key CPI print on Tuesday 13th, one day before the Fed decision.
At the moment markets price in around 22% chance of a hike next week and maybe CPI might be the main thing that shifts those odds towards a hike if the report is strong, according to Reid. If the Fed wants to communicate to the market one way or another ahead of next week then well placed media stories might surface (so far Timiraos has been hinting at a pause/skip).
However before CPI that does seem unlikely as nothing will be 100% decided until then. We are are back to having a fair bit of uncertainly over the near-term Fed outlook though. After spending most of the 4-day shortened week last week rallying around 25bps from the highest point post-SVB, 2yr US notes sold off +16bps on Friday after a strong headline payroll number that seemed to mask some notable weakness under the surface in the report. The headline increased +339k (+195k expected) with +94k of revisions over the last two months. However hours worked ticked down a tenth to 34.3hrs, which marks the lower end of the pre-covid range, and unemployment ticked up three- tenths to 3.7% via the household survey that showed employment falling by 310k with a 440k increase in unemployment. The household part of the report can be more volatile so caution is required. Adding to the confusing nature of the report, average hourly earnings came in at 4.3% YoY (vs 4.4% expected), still too high for comfort for the Fed but ticking lower.
Next up on the agenda, and as we detailed in "Liquidity To Collapse $1 Trillion In "3 Or 4 Months", Pushing Economy Into The Abyss ", with the debt ceiling deal signed into law over the weekend, watch for a dramatic rebuild in the US TGA (Treasury General Account) over the next few weeks and months. This starts this week with T-bill issuance that DB’s Steven Zeng suggests could in net terms hit $400bn in June and cumulatively $800bn by the end of August and $1.3tn by year-end. If you’re on the bearish side this deluge could drain liquidity in financial markets but if you’re more sanguine you would say it will just reshuffle money away from money market funds and equivalents (so far no money has left MMFs which are at all time highs).
In data terms, the quiet week ahead will be headlined by today's global services PMIs and the US ISM and factory orders prints, both of which disappointed (see here and here ). Other highlights will be US factory orders (today) and US trade and consumer credit (Wednesday).
Over in Europe, key data releases for Germany include the trade balance today, factory orders tomorrow and industrial production on Wednesday. Elsewhere in the region, notable releases include the trade balance for France on Wednesday, retail sales for the Eurozone tomorrow and industrial production for Italy on Friday. In Asia, Japanese wages tomorrow and China CPI on Friday will be the highlights.
In terms of central banks, the RBA meet tomorrow with markets pricing in around a 30% chance of a hike with a full hike cumulatively priced in by the August meeting after recent hot inflation numbers. DB economists have now moved to price in a 25bps hike tomorrow, August and September now. The Bank of Canada meet the following day with markets pricing a one-in-three chance of a hike with economists closer to 50/50.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday June 5
Data: US May ISM services, April factory orders, China May Caixin services PMI, UK May official reserves changes, new car registrations, European wide May services PMI, Germany April trade balance, Eurozone April PPI
Tuesday June 6
Data: UK May construction PMI, Japan April labor cash earnings, household spending, Germany May construction PMI, April factory orders, Eurozone April retail sales, Canada April building permits
Central Banks: ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
Wednesday June 7
Data: US April trade balance, consumer credit, China May trade balance, foreign reserves, Japan April leading index, coincident index, Italy April retail sales, Germany April industrial production, France April trade balance, current account balance, Canada Q1 labor productivity, April international merchandise trade
Central Banks: BoC rate decision, ECB's Guindos and Panetta speak
Thursday June 8
Data: US Q1 household change in net worth, April wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK May RICS house price balance, Japan May Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, April trade balance, current account balance, France Q2 total payrolls
Friday June 9
Data: China May CPI, PPI, Japan May M2, M3, Italy April industrial production, Canada Q1 capacity utilization rate, May jobs report
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the ISM services report on Monday. Fed officials are not expected to comment this week given the blackout period leading up to the FOMC meeting June 13-14.
Monday, June 5
09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, May final (consensus 55.1, last 55.1)
10:00 AM Factory orders, April (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.4%); Durable goods orders, April final (last +1.1%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April final (last -0.2%); Core capital goods orders, April final (last +1.4%); Core capital goods shipments, April final (last +0.5%)
10:00 AM ISM services index, May (GS 53.0, consensus 52.6, last 51.9): We estimate that the ISM services index rebounded by 1.1pt to 53.0 in May. Our forecast reflects the rebound in our GSAI, favorable seasonality, and a modest improvement in other business surveys on net (services tracker +0.1pt to 50.2). The lack of negative news on the banking sector in recent weeks also argues for sequential improvement.
01:30 PM Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will deliver welcome remarks at an event for the Council for Economic Education hosted by the Cleveland Fed. Mester is not expected to comment on monetary policy given the blackout period.
Tuesday, June 6
No major data releases scheduled.
Wednesday, June 7
08:30 AM Trade balance, April (GS -$74.0bn, consensus -$75.4bn, last -$64.2bn): We estimate that the trade deficit widened by $9.8bn to $74.0bn in April.
Thursday, June 8
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 3 (GS 225k, consensus n.a., last 232k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 27 (consensus N.A., last 1,438k); We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 225k in the week ended June 3.
10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, April final (consensus -0.2%, last -0.2%)
Friday, June 9
No major data releases scheduled.
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 11:10 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 14:50:00 +0000 Russia Says It Put Down Major Ukrainian Offensive Hours After It Began
Russia Says It Put Down Major Ukrainian Offensive Hours After It Began
Did Ukraine forces just attempt to kick off their much anticipated major counteroffensive, only to have it put down immediately after it began? Read more.....
Russia Says It Put Down Major Ukrainian Offensive Hours After It Began
Did Ukraine forces just attempt to kick off their much anticipated major counteroffensive, only to have it put down immediately after it began?
That's what the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) suggested early Monday in announcing that Ukraine began a "large-scale offensive" in mounting attacks along five sections of the frontlines in the eastern Donbas region. But Russia said it thwarted the major attack and that some 250 Ukrainian troops were killed , which included Ukraine sending six mechanized and two tank battalions to Russian-controlled southern Donetsk.
"On the morning of June 4, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction," the MoD statement began. "The enemy has failed to reach its goals and was unsuccessful."
Illustrative: Ukrainian tanks previously near Chasiv Yar, Ukraine. via Reuters
It added that in total the attacking forces lost six tanks, three infantry vehicles, and 21 armored vehicles in what would mark a significant defeat if confirmed. "The enemy’s goal was to breach our defenses in what they assumed was the most vulnerable section of the frontline," the Russian military statement continued.
"During the day, the occupiers made 23 attacks , but all of them were repulsed by units of the defense forces," the MoD continued, in reference to attacks also along front lines of Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.
The ministry further specified that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov "was at one of the forward command posts" at the time of the thwarted attacks.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky just days ago said that his forces stand 'ready' to launch a counteroffensive, he made not mention of the alleged assault Sunday night when he gave his nightly video address.
BBC has remained very skeptical of the Russian military narrative, and yet Kiev has admitted some degree of "offensive actions" Sunday into Monday:
VIDEO
But on Monday Ukraine issued a statement denouncing Russian 'lies' and propaganda that aims to demoralize and mislead the Ukrainian public, but without directly referencing the specific Kremlin claims of a thwarted counteroffensive. According to Reuters :
The commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Monday that Ukrainian forces continued "moving forward" near the long-contested city of Bakhmut in northern Donetsk. He made no comment on the counter-offensive.
The daily report from Ukraine's General Staff said only that there were 29 combat clashes in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine .
Ukraine's Centre for Strategic Communications did not address the Russian statement directly but said, without providing evidence, that Russia would seek to spread lies .
"To demoralize Ukrainians and mislead the community (including their own population), Russian propagandists will spread false information about the counteroffensive , its directions, and the losses of the Ukrainian army," it said.
Given the vague response from the Ukrainian side in the face of significant Russian claims which are currently grabbing world headlines, this for many observers is going to give credence to the Kremlin statements.
Reuters in its Monday reporting noted the following:
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov published a cryptic message on Twitter on Sunday, quoting Depeche Mode's track "Enjoy the Silence" .
As we detailed earlier , in recent days Ukrainian officials have been openly taunting Russia ahead of the offensive .
If the Russian MoD statements prove true, this marks disaster for the Ukrainian military, given a defeat at the very start of the counteroffensive would likely sap morale and momentum, given also already there have been widespread reports that inexperienced and untrained Ukrainians are being sent to the frontlines in droves amid mounting heavy casualties.
Meanwhile, there does appear to be some degree of confirmation from Ukrainian officials trickling out that "offensive actions" have indeed begun in various sectors.
But Ukraine’s deputy defense minister is seeking to stress that Russia is putting out claims of beating back the counteroffensive in order to "divert attention from the defeat" in locations near Bakhmut.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 10:50 Close
Mon, 05 Jun 2023 14:30:00 +0000 "Your Speech Is Violence": How The Mob Is Using A New Mantra To Justify Campus Violence
"Your Speech Is Violence": How The Mob Is Using A New Mantra To Justify Campus Violence
"Your Speech Is Violence": How The Mob Is Using A New Mantra To Justify Campus Violence
Authored by Jonathan Turley,
Below is my column in The Hill on the increasing justification of violence by the left on our campuses by declaring speech itself “violence.” It is part of the license of our age of rage for many who want to silence opposing viewpoints. There is, however, a way to end this anti-free speech movement sweeping through higher education.
Here is the column:
“Silence is violence.”
When those words became a popular mantra years ago on college campuses, I wrote that the anti-free speech movement was moving toward compelled speech while declaring dissenting views to be harmful.
Today, it isn’t just silence that is considered violence on college campuses. It is also speech, as both faculty and students are actively shutting down opposing views on subjects ranging from abortion to climate change to transgender issues.
Recently, many people were shocked by a videotape of Hunter College professor Shellyne Rodríguez trashing a pro-life student display in New York. Most were focused on her profanity and vandalism, but there were familiar phrases that appeared in her diatribe to the clearly shocked students.
Before trashing the table, she told the students, “You’re not educating s–t […] This is f–king propaganda. What are you going to do, like, anti-trans next? This is bulls–t. This is violent. You’re triggering my students.”
The videotape revealed one other thing. At Hunter College, and at other colleges, it seems that trashing a pro-life student display and abusing pro-life students is not considered a firing offense. Hunter College refused to fire Rodríguez.
The PSC Graduate Center, the labor organization of graduate and professional schools at the City University of New York, supported that decision and said Rodríguez was “justified” in trashing the display, which the organization described as “dangerously false propaganda” and “disinformation.”
Rodríguez later put a machete to the neck of a reporter, threatened to chop him up and then chased a news crew down a street with the machete in hand. Somewhere between the machete to the neck and chasing the reporters down the street, Hunter College finally decided that Rodríguez had to go .
Rodríguez denounced the school for having “capitulated” to “racists, white nationalists, and misogynists.” She explained that her firing was just a continuation of “attacks on women, trans people, black people, Latinx people, migrants, and beyond.”
The redefinition of opposing views as “violence” is a favorite excuse for violent groups like antifa, which continue to physically assault speakers with pro-life and other disfavored views. As explained by Rutgers Professor Mark Bray in his “Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook, ” the group believes that “‘free speech’ as such is merely a bourgeois fantasy unworthy of consideration.”
As one antifa member explained, free speech is a “nonargument…you have the right to speak but you also have the right to be shut up.”
When people criticized antifa for its violent philosophy, MSNBC’s Joy Reid responded to the critics that “you might be the fascist .”
Faculty members have followed this sense of license to silence others. Former CUNY law dean Mary Lu Bilek even insisted that disrupting a speech on free speech was free speech . (Hunter is part of the CUNY system.)
The same week as the Rodríguez attack at the State University of New York at Albany, sociology professor Renee Overdyke shut down a pro-life display and then allegedly resisted arrest.
Just last week, the Pride Office website at the University of Colorado (Boulder) declared that misgendering people can be considered an “act of violence.”
This week, University of Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers declared that some of those boycotting the store Target over its line of Pride Month clothing were engaging in “literal terrorism.” (He insists that he was referring to those confronting Target employees.)
Faculty have also justified attacks on pro-life figures. At the University of California, Santa Barbara, feminist studies associate professor Mireille Miller-Young physically assaulted pro-life advocates and tore down their display.
She pleaded guilty to criminal assault, but the university refused to fire her. Instead, some faculty and students defended her, including claiming that pro-life displays constitute terrorism. The University of Oregon later honored Miller-Young as a model for women advocates .
Likewise, at Fresno State University, public health professor Dr. Gregory Thatcher recruited students to destroy pro-life messages.
Other faculty have called for or countenanced violence against Republicans and conservatives. Professors have shouted down speakers, destroyed property , participated in riots and verbally attacked students.
University of Rhode Island professor Erik Loomis defended the murder of a conservative protester and said he saw “nothing wrong” with such acts of violence . He was later elevated to the position of director of graduate studies of history.
As faculty commit or support violence, students are assured that others are the violent ones. Recently, at the University of Texas at Austin, Professor Kirsten Bradbury tested her students on psychology by asking them “which sociodemographic group is most likely to repeatedly violate the rights of others in a pattern of behavior that includes violence, deceit, irresponsibility, and a lack of remorse?” Of course, the answer was wealthy white men.
The lesson took with students. A recent poll shows that 41 percent of college students now believe violence is justified to fight hate speech . At Cornell , a conservative speaker was shouted down, met with the common mantra that “your words are violence.” At Case Western , the student newspaper editorialized against university recognition of a pro-life group because its pro-life views are “inherently violent” and “a danger to the student body.” At Wellesley, student editors declared that it was time to shut down conservative speakers and that “hostility may be warranted.” They added, “The spirit of free speech is to protect the suppressed, not to protect a free-for-all where anything is acceptable, no matter how hateful and damaging.”
Those views did not spontaneously appear in the minds of these students. At one time, tolerance for free speech was the very touchstone of higher education and a common article of faith for students. These students are the product of years of being told that free speech is dangerous and harmful if left unregulated. From elementary school to college, they were taught that they did not have to be “triggered” by the speech of others.
We are still (thankfully) drawing the line at machete attacks. But it is the underlying views of Rodríguez that are the true threat, and they are being replicated throughout the country. We are raising a generation of censors and speech-phobics.
If we want to stop or reverse this trend, Congress must act. I have proposed legislation that would deny federal funding to schools that do not protect core free speech principles. We are funding schools that are taking a machete to the defining right of our democracy.
It is akin to the recent resolution of the case of an antifa member who took an axe to Sen. John Hoeven’s (R-N.D.) office in Fargo. Thomas “Tas” Alexander Starks, 31, was given probation …and his axe back .
We may not be able to deter people from speaking through machetes and axes, but we can at least stop subsidizing the hardware.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/05/2023 - 10:30 Close