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Joe Biden says that the Democratic National Convention may need to be held virtually.

In a Friday interview with ABC's "This Week," the 2020 Democratic frontrunner said that the convention is "necessary," but may not be feasible as it would require bringing thousands of people together in one location during a pandemic, according to The Hill.

"Well, we’re gonna have to do a convention," said Biden. "We may have to do a virtual convention. I know I think we should be thinking about that right now."

"What we do between now and then is gonna dictate a lot of that as well," he added.

BREAKING: Joe Biden tells @GStephanopoulos that Democrats "may have to do a virtual convention. I think we should be thinking about that right now. The idea of holding the convention is going to be necessary."

The convention was rescheduled for August. https://t.co/OBWRrasROt pic.twitter.com/4WNgvp824n

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) April 5, 2020

Biden, dispensing well-worn advice, has encouraged DNC decision makers to "follow the science" and "listen to the experts."

The Democratic National Committee announced Thursday that its national convention would be delayed by a month until August because of the coronavirus crisis.

The convention was originally scheduled to start July 13 but will now commence on Aug. 17.

A source close to the Biden campaign told The Hill last week that the former vice president had advocated for the convention to be delayed with the same format. The convention committee said on Thursday that it was trying to figure out the “most appropriate structure for this historic event.”

Meanwhile, the Republican National Convention is scheduled to occur Aug. 24 to 27 in Charlotte, N.C. -The Hill

Biden also repeated advice from Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top expert in infectious diseases, when he said that what the country needs "most of all" is a vaccine - but that in the meantime "we have to take all the efforts we can to make sure we prevent the spread."

He also suggested that we would need "at least two more iterations" of coronavirus stimulus.

Summary:

• NY reports first drop in daily deaths since outbreak began
• FT shows how US has become COVID-19s "epicenter"
• NY hospitalizations drop
• Italy follows New York with another promising drop in deaths
• India bans export of Trump's 'miracle' coronavirus drug
• Tokyo reports yet another jump in new COVID-19 cases
• Queen Elizabeth plans special televised address to Britain, only the 4th during her reign
• Australia launches criminal probe into Carnival Cruises
• COVID-19 deaths in Japan pass 100

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Update (1245ET): Another promising headline has just hit the tape: Italy just reported the lowest number of daily deaths in more than 2 weeks: 525 new deaths were reported over the past 24 hours, along with 4,316 new cases. That bring's Italy's death toll to 15,887, still the largest in Europe.

Italians are hoping this is the first sign that they are finally heading down the 'back way' of the curve.

Italy has hopefully reached the top of the mountain and now on the way back down. ?????????? https://t.co/CO3XyMexJC

— Owen Callan (@OwenCallan) April 5, 2020

*    *    *

Before we delve into our daily breakdown of some of the biggest coronavirus-related news from around the world, we'd like to highlight yet another grim milestone in COVID-19's "conquest" (are we still allowed to use war metaphors or has that been declared un-PC?) of the US. While the outbreaks in Mexico and Canada have only produced about 16k cases between them, the total number of cases confirmed in the US has ballooned past 300k in the US (to 312,249 as of 11amET Sunday morning).

Now, here's the FT, which detailed the shift in momentum from Asia, to Europe, to the US. It's a little more complicated than look at only the overall totals and the current daily figures.

In a little over one month the daily number of Covid-19 cases globally has grown exponentially from 2,359 on March 1 to 101,503 on Saturday. At the beginning of March, Asia accounted for more than half of the total cases reported each day. This quickly shifted as outbreaks began in continental Europe, with Italy, Spain, Germany and France all reporting cases in the thousands. By mid-March, Europe was responsible for four in every five new confirmed cases each day. While Europe is still responsible for nearly 40 per cent of daily cases, the US has become the new centre of the Covid-19 pandemic. The country accounts for nearly one-third of all daily cases, with New York state particularly affected.

Here's most of that, broken down into a chart:

All that said, with the US gearing up for what President Trump and NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo expect to be the week where the outbreak peaks (in New York, at least), the Empire State has at least started off on the right foot.

New York reported 8,327 new cases of coronavirus and 594 new deaths on Sunday (compared with 630 a day ago), marking the state’s first drop in daily deaths since the outbreak began. In total, 122,031 cases have been confirmed in the state (roughly equivalent to the national totals of both Italy and Spain )and 4,159 deaths. While we’re certainly no epidemiologists, we suspect others might point to this as a small, but hopefully promising, hint that the ‘peak’ is near, or here.

And as we noted last night, hospitalizations in the state have shown another encouraging decline, even as many ICUs in NYC remain very close to, or at, capacity.

Cuomo is beginning his daily press briefing below:

Holding a briefing with updates on #Coronavirus. WATCH LIVE: https://t.co/gLjk74Ghtt

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) April 5, 2020

The governor kicked off Sunday's presser by thanking New York's health-care workers, before adding that recent trends suggest that the state might have already arrived at its hoped-for plateau.

"You could argue that you are seeing a plateauing," he told reporters in Albany. "Next week they will tell you whether we are on a plateau or is it just a blip," he said, referring to statisticians. He noted that deaths had leveled off for three days following the dramatic increases seen for most of last week, which saw the state reporting close to 1k deaths a day for a few days there.

New hospitalizations dropped to 574 on Sunday from 1,095, Cuomo said, adding that 74% of those hospitalized have been discharged.

Being a pandemic with almost no precedent in modern times (other than the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918), traditions of culture and governance are being disrupted left and right (hell, we just cancelled the Olympics). In keeping with that trend, Queen Elizabeth will deliver a special televised address to Britain; it will be only the fourth time she has done so during her nearly 70-year reign. Excerpts from the address have already been released, and in them, the Queen acknowledges the suffering of hundreds of thousands of families around the country, while seeking to "lift their spirits" and "offer hope," according to ABC News.

The 93-year-old monarch is expected to acknowledge the suffering that many families have experienced because of the COVID-19 crisis, which has infected more than 42,000 people in the U.K. and killed at least 4,313 of them. She will seek to lift spirits and offer hope to the country in its hour of need.

“I am speaking to you at what I know is an increasingly challenging time,’’ she said, according to excerpts released ahead of remarks that were being broadcast Sunday night. “A time of disruption in the life of our country; a disruption that has brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all.”

Elsewhere, Tokyo reported yet another record jump in daily cases, with 143 new coronavirus infections announced on Sunday, metropolitan government officials said. Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19-related deaths finally surpassed 100 in Japan, Nikkei reports. In India, the government of Narendra Modi has banned the export of hydroxychloroquine, a drug widely touted by Trump for treating COVID-19. In Australia, prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Carnival Cruises as hundreds were sickened, dozens died on their ships.

It's appearing as though Wall Street hasn't quite prepared for what is coming down the pipeline, as companies across the board prepare to blindside analysts with upcoming earnings reports. 

Walgreens, this morning, was a perfect example. Everyone believed they were a company that was coronavirus-proof, yet the stock fell after the company admitted it was still seeing decreasing foot traffic - even after the company beat its earnings estimates.

In the age of the coronavirus, almost all analysts are "flying blind". And this is likely to lead to some shocks from earnings reports that will be felt across the street. Many companies have already admitted publicly that they have no clue where the pandemic is going to take their business.

Which raises the question of how there's going to be any price discovery; not just from analysts trying to set estimates, but from the market trying to price companies as a result of their Q1 numbers. 

Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at INTL FCStone told Bloomberg on Thursday: “Things are changing drastically day by day because no one has ever seen this before. It’s almost like calling out an arbitrary number because the fundamentals are broken.”

It's not a question of whether or not there will be a drubbing across the board for all corporations. The question is how bad it is going to be. Only about 17% of all earnings estimates across the S&P 500 were revised last week. This compares to an economy where almost 100% of businesses are shut down - and where those that aren't shut down will definitely be feeling an impact. 

Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse said:

 “While analysts are updating their numbers much more frequently than normal, their estimates remain stale. This pattern will likely continue until the start of earnings season, and beyond."

In addition to having no clarity on individual companies' earnings, analysts have little clarity on how the S&P is priced as a whole right now, namely because the "E" in the index's P/E ratio is up in the air. 54 names in the S&P 500 have withdrawn guidance since February. 

Keith Gangl, a portfolio manager for Gradient Investments said:

 “Any name’s got five to 30 analysts setting the consensus - we can know whether companies are underperforming relative to estimates. But now, everybody is taking a stab in the dark.”

Gangl said that he is instead going to be listening to the tone of executives on each company's respective conference call. Again, to look back at our Walgreen's example this morning, it was this commentary that moved the stock - not the numbers.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates Inc. said: “The earnings coming up are probably going to be the most unpredictable or worst estimates we’ve ever seen in the history of this country. It’s a completely different world. Anyone who lived through the financial crisis can’t think the way they did then. It’s a whole new ballgame now.”

And despite the appearance of a haircut in the S&P 500's P/E multiple, the broad range of outcomes going forward almost assures significantly more volatility in months ahead.

Aaron Clark, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management, has looked deeply at the worst affected industries, including travel & leisure. 

“It’s more balance sheet analysis than income statement analysis. Have they tapped their credit line, how much liquidity do they have, what’s their interest coverage, when is their debt coming due?” he said.

Paul Markham, global equity portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management agreed: “What you really do in this environment is disregard the first quarter of 2020 and then normalize the earnings.”

He concluded:

“What would be more appropriate is to take the final three quarters and annualize those for the year or to replace the first quarter with something which is very significantly haircut, but not a negative or low earnings number because it’s not necessarily going to be repeated.”

To which we reply "Sure, Paul, but what kind of alchemy do you employ when Q2 and Q3 turn out to be worse than Q1?"

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is putting the brakes on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) attempt to rush a phase-four coronavirus relief package through Congress - insisting that they take a wait-and-see approach after a $2.2 trillion rescue package was signed into law last month by President Trump.

Pelosi, who has been holding near-daily calls with reporters, has been aggressively pushing for the follow-up legislaton which would make funds available for transportation, coronavirus treatment (not just testing), more money for states, and benefits for employees such as paid family and sick leave, according to The Hill.

"The coronavirus is moving swiftly, and our communities cannot afford for us to wait. House Democrats will continue to work relentlessly and in a bipartisan way to lift up American families and workers to protect their health, economic security and well-being today and throughout this crisis," Pelosi insisted on Friday.

McConnell is having none of it - and has made abundantly clear that he wants to wait to see if the first package has had any impact.

"We're not going to be doing, in the name of an emergency, items unrelated to the emergency," he told Fox News Radio when asked about the next bill.

Of note, while Congressional leaders have remained in Washington, most lawmakers are out of town until at least April 20.

Congressional Republicans are backing McConnell, however they've been privately discussing a fourth bill as well.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) backed up McConnell, telling reporters that while Pelosi “is trying to talk about a fourth bill, I don't think that is appropriate at this time.”

Some rank-and-file GOP senators say they are already informally discussing a fourth bill as the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. is expected to skyrocket in the coming weeks. As of Friday evening, there were about 274,000 cases in the United States and more than 7,000 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. -The Hill

Speaker Pelosi's ambition to create a select committee on the coronavirus crisis isn't about oversight. It's pure politics.

She wants to exploit this crisis in order to fundamentally restructure America and advance her political agenda. pic.twitter.com/hYHXx6F5kS

— Kevin McCarthy (@GOPLeader) April 3, 2020

Barbs between Pelosi and McConnell have spilled into the public sphere - with McConnell telling Pelosi to "stand down" in one interview - suggesting she's trying to "jam" Senate Republicans.

Pelosi, meanwhile, suggested that McConnell's comments - along with verbal sparring between Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was "chicken feed," and that "you can't pay attention to that stuff," adding "They're playing to their base."

The Trump administration has remained on the periphery while Congressional leaders continue to spar - with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin telling reporters that he has spoken with lawmakers - saying "I've spoken to the leader, I've spoken to the Speaker. I've spoken to the president constantly. When the president is ready and thinks we should do the next stage, we're ready."

Read the rest of the report here.

As we've noted in recent months, COVID-19 is the perfect cover for the government to usher in a massive surveillance state. 

Residents in Kentucky are figuring this out firsthand, have already seen an increase in digital surveillance of smartphone tracking by the government to make sure everyone is practicing social distancing. And now, there's a new report that shows anyone refusing to quarantine after virus exposure could be subjected to wearing a GPS/cellular ankle bracelet issued by the courts. 

As a response to the virus outbreak in the state, Jefferson Circuit Court judge Angela Bisig ordered anyone who has been infected by COVID-19 and fails to isolate will wear an ankle monitoring device. 

CNN affiliate WDRB reported last week that Bisig ordered an individual identified as "D.L." to wear a GPS monitoring device for 14 days after refusing to self-quarantine. 

In the court order, D.L. is living with "someone who has tested positive for the illness and another person who is a presumptive case," according to an affidavit from Dr. Sarah Moyer, director of the health department.

D.L. was ordered to self-isolate at home after being exposed to the highly contagious disease, but according to court documents, family members said the person "leaves the house often."

After D.L. failed to respond to Bisig's request, she ordered the Department of Corrections to fit D.L. with a monitoring device. Bisig told the person if they leave the house again, criminal charges would be next. 

WDRB said D.L. is not the only Kentuckian wearing an ankle monitor device to mitigate the spread of the virus from non-compliant and suspected carriers. There are three other cases. 

This report comes after a group of millennials threw a "coronavirus party" that resulted in one person contracting the deadly virus. So far, 917 people in the state have tested positive, and 40 have died (as of Sunday morning, April 5). 

And before you know it, "pandemic drones" could be circling above, identifying if a person is a suspected COVID-19 carrier. In essence, America's dystopian future is arriving a lot faster than anyone has anticipated.

Authored by Rob Stumpf, via The Drive,

The coronavirus pandemic has left no part of the global economy untouched. People are staying indoors, businesses are shuttering left and right, unemployment is skyrocketing and virtually nobody is buying cars. Now, as we edge toward a downturn worse than the 2008 financial crisis, Ford is nudging the U.S. government toward another Cash for Clunkers-style car buying incentive program.

“We think some level of stimulus somewhere on the other side of this would help not only the auto industry and our dealers, which are a huge part of our overall economy, but will help the customers as well,” said Mark LaNeve, Ford’s vice president of U.S. marketing, sales and service, in a phone interview with Bloomberg. “We’re in discussions about what would be the most appropriate.”

After the U.S. auto industry got its $80 billion taxpayer-funded bailout (minus Ford, which survived through private loans), a $3 billion taxpayer-funded initiative called the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS) was signed into law, aimed at promoting consumers to trade in their old "clunkers" and purchase a brand new vehicle—ideally a cleaner and more fuel-efficient one. Anyone who owned a car built after 1984 with a rating of 18 MPG or less could be given a voucher worth between $2,900 and $4,500 toward their new car. Their old vehicle would then be disabled and taken out of circulation.

The program was nicknamed Cash for Clunkers and on the surface, it was a politician's dream; better cars, more jobs, a boost to the economy, and an overall less harmful environmental impact.

Consumers bit the hook and auto sales immediately spiked. In total, 677,842 cars and trucks got traded in under the CARS program, totaling vouchers worth $2.85 billion. Fast forward 11 years and Ford is looking for a repeat.

“Cash for clunkers was very effective at that time,” LaNeve told Bloomberg. “It would be nice to think we could have something equally as effective for 2020 when we get out of this because it was a great program.”

Except, it wasn't really a great program.

While Cash for Clunkers did result in a significant number of new cars parked in the driveway of Americans, the spike was brief. In fact, the program ran out of its initial $1 billion in funding within a month, prompting the U.S. government to provide another $2 billion influx. Its second round of funding was exhausted in just 17 days.

Economists also believe that sales weren't really sustainable, and that instead of generating new transactions, it instead pulled forward later sales "from a far more distant future" by consumers who were already in the market for new vehicles.

Statistics indicate that the program benefited wealthier and better educated Americans more than it did lower income people. The idea that the program would create more jobs was correct, though not nearly as much as a reduction of payroll tax or an increase in unemployment aid.

It also wasn’t really that great for American automakers. Despite domestic cars representing at least 71.8 percent of all trade-ins, Detroit accounted for just 32.6 percent of all new car sales and leases under the CARS program.

Furthermore, the program took a substantial number of decent used cars off the road, many of which were still operable and roadworthy that could have been bought by lower-income families who live in areas where public transportation infrastructure is lacking. Instead, the vehicles exchanged under the program were destroyed.

It was the dealership's responsibility to disable the vehicle's engine after trade-in. This was typically done with a few quarts of sodium silicate solution (water, silica, and salt) and a minute or so of flat-footed revving until the inevitable seizure of ill-lubricated metal components was achieved. Disabled vehicles were then sent to recycling facilities where they would be crushed or shredded.

It’s worth noting that enthusiast vehicles suffered in this, too. Rare rides like the 1987 Buick ASC GNX and 1992 GMC Typhoon were sent to the crusher, though other fan favorites were also disposed off, including a BMW M3, 123 examples of the Subaru SVX, 381 Nissan 300ZXs and even four MK4 Toyota Supras. (One imagines Bring a Trailer would take care of many of those today.)

So in the end, Cash for Clunkers was a limited, mixed success at best. It was certainly a clever idea and a well-intentioned one, but if it happened again, some fine-tuning would absolutely need to be in order. 

Having said all that, Ford hasn't officially solicited the U.S. government for this type of assistance—yet. Politicians are aware of the thought, though no movement appears to have been made in either direction at this time. Via Bloomberg once more:

U.S. Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat whose district is home to Ford’s headquarters, said a vehicle scrappage or purchase incentive to spur demand has been discussed as a possible form of relief for the industry, but said no consensus has been reached on the issue.

“It’s out there as an idea along with many other ideas,” she said. “We’re working with the entire ecosystem of automakers, workers, their unions, suppliers, dealers and consumers.”

There's no denying that the auto industry will need to perk up in the future. Even before the global pandemic, the industry was already slowing for its fifth consecutive year. It's difficult to say what the correct next move will be, especially while manufacturing plants across the nation are idled and unemployment has skyrocketed, but surely there's a better answer than clunkernomics.