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Fri, 29 Sep 2023 20:20:00 +0000 Kunstler: Bringing Back This Gaslit Nation Into The Daylight
Kunstler: Bringing Back This Gaslit Nation Into The Daylight
Kunstler: Bringing Back This Gaslit Nation Into The Daylight
Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
Two-Punch
“The statement that “Joe Biden wasn’t involved in Hunter Biden’s business,” is absurd in its face. Joe Biden was Hunter Biden’s business.”
- Margot Cleveland
Understand: no amount of political blustering will bring this gaslit nation into daylight when there is no more money and no more credit and no feasible way to feed the blob that ate our government.
The equation is simple. Our country can’t handle normal interest rates; and the value of the dollar can’t withstand more ultra-low interest rates. Someone, please, ask Congress to stop screwing that pooch over there!
Oh, and that “can” we’ve been kicking down the road turns out to be a rusty old 50-gallon drum. Somebody has stuffed America into it and is fixing to drop us overboard beyond the continental shelf off the Jersey Shore. Can that be stopped, too?
So, here at week’s end we see these two rather momentous issues juxtaposed:
the battle over how to finance that blob-infested monster in DC; and
the battle to expose the crimes of a real-life Manchurian Candidate president.
Neither battle is going all that well for the minority of citizens who want to live in a pro-reality society. If we follow the fiscal trend, all the tax revenue we can grudge up will barely cover the annual interest on our $30+trillion debt. If we can’t boot out the brain-dead cat’s paw in the White House, then say goodbye to the rule of law and liberty with it.
The people we elect to Congress don’t want to be accountable for specifically authorizing spending on the blob’s multitudinous pet projects. So, they depend on multi-thousand-page omnibus bills nobody can ever scrutinize, and continuing resolution dodges to postpone any necessarily painful action on a budget. Therefore, a dissenting coterie in the House proposes to play hard-ball over de-funding the blob, that is, a government shutdown of unknown duration, until gaslight is replaced by sunlight. The blob itself sends out a frantic S.O.S.
Don’t let these white supremacist, “far-right” MAGA nut-jobs drag us out of the comfortable warm, moist darkness we thrive in — perfect conditions for continued blob growth!
After all, these Congresspersons have their lobbyist-donors to answer to, and they’d better come up with the right answer — or else their chance of eventually retiring as multi-millionaires, like Nancy Pelosi did, might slip away. Of course, the joke would be on them (and the rest of us) if it eventually costs a million dollars for a slice of pizza when they try to cash-out. Or is there some dirty secret involved here — for instance, that the blob has also taken over whatever remained of the US economy, too. So that defunding the blob also blows a hole in that putative economy? Or maybe not. Maybe the regular economy can breathe a little again with the blob’s boot off its neck. Let’s go ahead and shut off the flow for a week or two, see what happens.
I imagine some of you took in the opening of House Oversight’s impeachment inquiry, or at least enjoyed a few choice tidbits on Web video. Chairman Comer (R-KY) tried to proceed gingerly, so as to not appear vicious, and called onstage three witnesses to establish an upright basis for the exercise. Alas, they were led by the earnest but equivocating GWU law professor Jonathan Turley, straining so hard to be above reproach that he seemed to levitate out of his seat. The Democrat minority were allowed to invite their own shill, one Michael J. Gerhardt, a law prof from North Carolina, who was there to make the gaslight flicker, and sho’nuff did.
Ranking (minority) Member Jamie Raskin immediately tried to distract the proceeding with a call to subpoena Rudy Giuliani — supposedly to impugn the process. The majority briskly tabled Raskin’s motion. The old trouper has been worked over pretty severely by a lawless DOJ the past three years, had his client correspondence stolen by the FBI, his law license suspended by a malign New York Bar Association… but don’t forget he is an experienced and resourceful federal prosecutor himself. He spent many months beating the thickets of corruption in Ukraine for then-President Trump, and certainly knows more about what went on in that grubby money laundry than practically anyone. Bring him on. I’d like to see ol’ Rudy joust with the likes of Cori Bush (D-CA) , AOC (D-NY), and Kweisi Mfume (D-MD).
The New York Times pushed the leitmotif of their narrative this morning: there’s no evidence that “Joe Biden” committed any impeachable offenses.
That wasn’t the point of Mr. Comer’s opening exercise, which did not include what are called “fact witnesses” - exactly what The New York Times pretended to not understand. The point was to open this ugly business delicately, with some decorum. It will be interesting to see how long the news media can keep pretending there’s nothing to see in the Biden family’s global business doings when a firehouse of evidence is turned on them.
You can be sure the committee is sitting on some items we have not heard about.
There’s reason to be discouraged that the people we elect can bring the two great issues of the moment - the blob’s budget and the impeachment of “Joe Biden” - to satisfactory conclusions. They are arguably pseudopods of that very blob, whose very existence is being threatened now, and they have to worry about their shots at becoming multi-millionaires, too. The weeks ahead will inform us if there’s anything that can be salvaged of our federal government or whether we must make other arrangements.
* * *
Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 16:20 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 20:00:00 +0000 "Fed's Last Hike" Triggers Q3 Carnage; Traders 'Sell All The Things' In September
"Fed's Last Hike" Triggers Q3 Carnage; Traders 'Sell All The Things' In September
The third quarter of 2023 was the first quarter of tightening financial conditions since 2022 with September the biggest monthly tightening of
Read more.....
"Fed's Last Hike" Triggers Q3 Carnage; Traders 'Sell All The Things' In September
The third quarter of 2023 was the first quarter of tightening financial conditions since 2022 with September the biggest monthly tightening of conditions in a year.
And if you're wondering why? It's simple, the low came at almost exactly the time of the last Fed hike (July 26)...
Source: Bloomberg
That tightening of financial conditions in Q3 corresponded to a collapse in 'hard' data (its biggest quarterly plunge since Q4 2020) while 'soft' survey data soared (its biggest quarterly jump since Q1 2020)...
Source: Bloomberg
And that left the dollar higher in Q3, but everything else lower (bonds and bitcoin worst, gold and stocks bad)...
Source: Bloomberg
Since making YTD highs in mid-July (last Fed hike), NDX is down 8 of 11 weeks for a cumulative selloff of 7%. Over the same time frame, US 10-year note yields have risen from 3.79% to 4.58% - probably not a coincidence.
This was the worst quarter for the S&P and Nasdaq since Q3 2022.
All the majors are in the red to close Q3 with Small Caps the laggard and Dow the prettiest horse in the glue factory...
Source: Bloomberg
September was the worst month for the S&P and Nasdaq since Dec 2022.
September saw losses accelerate after the FOMC meeting...
Source: Bloomberg
On the week, the Nasdaq ended unchanged, Small Caps eked out a small gain; The Dow was the biggest loser and the S&P was down around 1%...
The energy sector was the only equity cohort to end the third quarter in the green with Utes and Real Estate the ugliest horse in the glue factory...
Source: Bloomberg
Similarly, September was even uglier overall with Energy managing to hold green but every other equity sector slammed (again led by Utes and Real Estate)...
Source: Bloomberg
"Most Shorted" stocks dumped for the second month in a row in September (the biggest 2mo drop since Dec 2022). Q3 was the first quarterly drop in 'most shorted' stocks since Q2 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were battered in Q3 with the long-end yields up over 90bps...
Source: Bloomberg
September was a US bond market bloodbath with the entire curve dramatically higher in yield. The last week has seen the short-end outperform, steepening the yield curve...
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were battered...globally
5y US yield highest since 2007
10y US yield highest since 2007
30y US yield highest since 2010
10y German yield highest since 2011
Japan 10y highest since 2013
Japan 20y highest since 2014
Japan 30y highest since 2013
That US 30-year yields extended April 2022’s break out of a downtrend that’s lasted since the 1980s is probably the most significant economic development of the current era.
Rate change expectations for 2023 are basically unchanged for Q3 (green lines) but the expectation for rate-cuts in 2024 (blue line) has fallen dramatically (hawkishly higher expectations for rates)...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the second straight month in September to its highest close since Nov 2022. Q3 was the dollar's first positive quarter since 2022...
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was basically unchanged in September, rallying back in the last couple of days to erase the puke at the end of August. However, While Solana and Ripple outperformed in Q3, Ethereum and Bitcoin were battered, down 10-11%...
Source: Bloomberg
In commodity-land, Q3 was a great one for crude markets. NatGas also gained... but copper and PMs basically went nowhere...
Source: Bloomberg
September was a shitshow across commodities with energy (crude and natgas soaring) while copper (growth) and precious metals (tightening policy) dumped. Silver was clubbed like a baby seal to end the month...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold suffered 'Death Cross' this week...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil has extended its gains since its 'Golden Cross' in August, trading back at pre-Putin-Invasion levels...
Source: Bloomberg
The massive outperformance of crude over copper pushed it up to historically key resistance level...
Source: Bloomberg
Also, Gold is at its cheapest to crude in a year and also at a key support level...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the disconnect between real yields and the S&P 500's P/E valuation came into the month at a noted extreme. And while the index has repriced ~5% lower, real yields increased, too...
Source: Bloomberg
As Powell said at Jackson Hole last year, there's more pain to come here.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 16:00 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 19:45:00 +0000 "Soft Landing" Hope By The Fed Is Likely Optimistic
"Soft Landing" Hope By The Fed Is Likely Optimistic
"Soft Landing" Hope By The Fed Is Likely Optimistic
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The Fed’s “soft landing” hopes are likely overly optimistic. Such was the context of the recent #BullBearReport, which discussed the long record of the Fed’s economic growth projections. To wit:
“However, there is a problem with the Fed projections. They are historically the worst economic forecasters ever. We have tracked the median point of the Fed projections since 2011, and they have yet to be accurate. The table and chart show that Fed projections are always inherently overly optimistic.
As shown, in 2022, the Fed thought 2022 growth would be near 3%. That has been revised down to just 2.2% currently and will likely be lower by year-end.”
As we noted, the Fed’s outlook for more robust growth allowed them to keep one rate hike on the table. While the prospect of further rate hikes spooked the stock and bond markets immediately following the announcement, as we discussed, such was needed to keep markets in line.
“The Fed projecting one last rate increase is also a way of preventing investors from immediately turning to the next question: When will the Fed cut? The risk is that as soon as investors start doing that, rate expectations will come down sharply, and with them, long-term interest rates, providing the economy with a boost the Fed doesn’t want it to receive just yet.
That is right. Since October last year, the market has been hoping for rate cuts and increasing asset prices in advance. Of course, higher asset prices boost consumer confidence, potentially keeping inflationary pressures elevated. Keeping a rate hike on the table keeps the options for the Federal Reserve open. “
Are the Fed’s “soft landing” hopes wrong?
Soft-Landing Hopes And Economic Realities
“On the eve of recessions in 1990, 2001, and 2007, many Wall Street economists proclaimed the U.S. was on the cusp of achieving a soft landing, in which interest-rate increases corralled inflation without causing a recession.” – Nick Timaros, WSJ
Similarly, the combination of easing inflation and a cooling labor market has fueled “soft landing” hopes among economists and Federal Reserve officials. However, soft landings are elusive as the Fed often holds rates too high for too long. Eventually, something breaks financially, economically, or both, leading to recessions and bear markets.
The Fed and most economists were wrong in 2022 when they forecasted an economic contraction. Economic growth, the labor market, and consumer spending proved unexpectedly resilient despite rising interest rates and elevated inflation. Much of that growth remains from the massive monetary liquidity still flowing through the economy.
With the restart of student loan payments, the UAW strike, and still high prices eating into consumer’s excess savings, that support is fading. However, other measures with near-perfect track records predicting recessions also suggest “soft landing” hopes are likely wrong.
Leading Indicators Lead
The Leading Economic Index is one of those indicators that should not be dismissed. As its name suggests, the data is forward-looking. With a negative reading for 17 months straight, the recession warning is quite evident. As shown, a recession occurred whenever the Fed hiked rates, and the 6-month rate of change in the LEI was negative by more than 2%.
However, our own Economic Output Composite Index, which comprises more than 100 data points of hard and soft, leading and lagging indicators, confirms the warning of the leading economic index.
Notably, since we know that increases in interest rates impact economic growth, it is unsurprising that when the annual rate of change in interest rates spikes, economic growth slows. Given the magnitude of the current rate of change in interest rates on a heavily indebted economy, the “soft landing” hope seems to be a stretch.
But one indicator suggests recession is most prominent in the second half of 2024.
The Risk Of Recession In 2024 Is Likely
Of all the economic indicators we regularly review, one has continually preceded economic recessions. While “soft landing” hopes are high, the inversion of multiple yield curves suggests those hopes are misplaced. As discussed previously, the media always assumes this time is different regarding yield curve inversions because a recession didn’t occur immediately upon the inversion. There are two problems with this way of thinking.
The National Bureau Of Economic Research (NBER) is the official recession dating arbiter. They wait for data revisions by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) before announcing a recession’s official start. Therefore, the NBER is always 6-12 months late, dating the recession.
It is not the inversion of the yield curve that denotes the recession. The inversion is the “warning sign,” whereas the un-inversion marks the start of the recession, which the NBER will recognize later.
As discussed in “BTFD Or STFR,” if you wait for the official announcement by the NBER to confirm a recession, it will be too late. To wit:
“Each of those dots is the peak of the market PRIOR to the onset of a recession. In 9 of 10 instances, the S&P 500 peaked and turned lower prior to the recognition of a recession. “
While many analysts will focus on one yield curve inversion, we monitor and track ten different yield spreads affecting various economic areas. Currently, 90% of the yield spreads we monitor, shown below, are inverted, which historically is one of the best leading recessionary indicators. However, even then, it was several months before the economy slipped into recession.
When these yield spreads turn negative, and a recession doesn’t occur immediately, the media discounts the risk. Such is why, before previous recessions, there were “soft landing” hopes. As shown, a recession followed an inversion of 50% or more of the tracked yield curves. Note that during the 1995 “soft landing,” yield curves never inverted. (Read this for a complete history.)
Conclusion
Most importantly,it is NOT the inversion of the yield curves that denote the onset of a recession. It is when the yield curve UN-inverts that marks the start of the recession. When the longer duration yields begin to fall, such will coincide with a decline in economic activity. Then, the “soft landing” hopes will fade into an economic recession reality.
The yield curve is sending a message that investors should not ignore. Furthermore, “risk-based” investors tend to act sooner rather than later. Of course, the contraction in liquidity causes the decline, eventually exacerbating the economic contraction.
Despite commentary to the contrary, the yield curve is a “leading indicator” of what is happening in the economy. However, the Fed remains focused on economic data that is “lagging” and subject to massive revisions.
While consumers may continue to support economic growth, such will change dramatically when job losses occur. As job losses increase, there is a rapid change in psychology.
Using the “yield curve” as a “market timing” tool is unwise. However, dismissing the message it is sending entirely is just as foolish.
History has not been kind to those that do.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 15:45 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 19:25:00 +0000 X Shreds Threads As Active Users Hit Record High; Legacy Media Fails To Kill 'Free Speech' Platform
X Shreds Threads As Active Users Hit Record High; Legacy Media Fails To Kill 'Free Speech' Platform
X Shreds Threads As Active Users Hit Record High; Legacy Media Fails To Kill 'Free Speech' Platform
How it started.
How it's going?
Meanwhile...
By mid-July, a little more than a week after Meta launched Twitter-clone Threads on July 5, we noted (read: here ) a startling trend of the keyword "Twitter Killer" being used by corporate press ahead, during, and after launch. This was a coordinated attack - as the corporate press, and now even some in the Biden administration, want to cancel the free-speech billionaire.
Have some in the corporate press given up on their Twitter X attacks?
"It's okay to admit defeat , especially when something is not working out," Forbes said this week as Threads has lost a whopping 80% of its users since launch.
And Musk has made it a mission to be that 'asteroid' to make legacy, dinosaur media extinct: "I hope people around the world engage in citizen journalism, so we know what's truly happening and we get real-time, on-the-ground coverage!"
One X user said, "You'd be surprised how many people still don't notice the bias Let's give it another year, citizen journalists will continue to expose mainstream media."
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 15:25 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 19:05:00 +0000 "It Feels Like A Storm Is Coming": Gloom Of 2023 Confronts Upbeat End-Of-Year History
"It Feels Like A Storm Is Coming": Gloom Of 2023 Confronts Upbeat End-Of-Year History
By Michael Msika, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
Coming off a rough quarter and with clouds hanging over the cont
Read more.....
"It Feels Like A Storm Is Coming": Gloom Of 2023 Confronts Upbeat End-Of-Year History
By Michael Msika, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
Coming off a rough quarter and with clouds hanging over the continent’s economic outlook, stock investors aren’t getting excited about the remaining months of the year, which have historically been strong.
After three consecutive quarters of gains, the Stoxx 600 is set to end the July-September period with negative returns. The peak interest rate narrative has taken a hit as central banks continued to send hawkish messages, with more work likely needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
While the Stoxx 600 only experienced modest declines during the quarter, a heavy sector rotation has played out, with investors taking profit on winners from the first half of the year, such as luxuries, tech and travel, while soaring oil propelled energy stocks higher.
“It feels like a storm is coming,” says Freddie Lait, managing partner at Latitude Investment Management. Investors should “avoid very hot sectors or at least take some money off the table.”
The latest Bank of America fund managers survey showed that overall, they are still pessimistic in the near term. Some 63% of European-based investors predicted downside for the market in the coming months, a consequence of monetary tightening as well as earnings downgrades. The cautious view is echoed by strategists who see range-bound returns at best in the last quarter.
That would come as sharp contrast to the historical returns of the Stoxx 600. Seasonality shows that European equities’ perform best over the last three months of the year. October in particular can be volatile, but the benchmark ended with positive returns in 18 of the past 25 years. This year, however, more losses are likely before a potential rebound.
“A bottom for the stock market is likely to happen during the fourth quarter,” says Matthias Born, equity chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Berenberg. “Sentiment is getting more and more negative, flows are going to cash, positioning is low, which could also create a buying opportunity in a similar way to what we saw last October.”
High rates remain a major problem for stocks, as bonds and cash are now offering a very competitive yield and less risk, especially if earnings estimates start to come down. That in turn would pressure valuations, making stocks more expensive than they currently look.
“Amid peak central banks’ hawkishness and downside risks to the economy, bonds are looking more reasonably priced now and increasingly attractive versus equities,” says Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau. “History shows that yields tend to move lower after the Fed stops hiking rates, and if the low PMIs are indeed a reliable indicator of growth, equities could have catch-down potential” to bonds.
With no clear signs of recovery, economic surprises in Europe remain negative, while composite PMI has been in contraction since June. Still, earnings are showing resilience, providing a floor to equities, according to Cau. He expects earnings to determine the trajectory of the broader equity market, rather than the direction or the level of rates.
“Europe is facing macro headwinds with anemic growth and stubborn inflation,” says Andrew McCaffery, global CIO at Fidelity International in his third quarter view. “Activity is slowing and the outlook for equities is cloudy.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 15:05 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 18:25:00 +0000 Positive Term Premia Drive Yields And Steeper Curve
Positive Term Premia Drive Yields And Steeper Curve
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Rising term premia, which have recently turned positive again , has been driving the rise in y
Read more.....
Positive Term Premia Drive Yields And Steeper Curve
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Rising term premia, which have recently turned positive again , has been driving the rise in yields and the bear steepening in the yield curve, with more likely to come.
After spending most the past six years negative, bond risk premia, aka term premia, are positive again on long-dated Treasuries (measures such as the ACM term premium is shown in the chart below; Kim and Wright term premium also recently turned positive).
Term premia have fallen relentlessly since the GFC, driven by central-bank appetite for bonds through QE, and from the appeal of fixed-income as a portfolio hedge.
But with the stock-bond correlation positive again, driven by elevated inflation and inflation expectations, bonds are losing their efficacy in the traditional 60/40 approach to portfolio investing. Term premia are rising to reflect this.
As colleague Ed Harrison just noted, it’s not only the change in Fed expectations that’s driving the move in yields. When it comes to the yield curve, it is term premium’s rise that’s been behind the recent bear steepening. The yield curve and term premium have tracked each other very closely over the last 30-40 years.
There’s likely more to come. Inflation expectations remain historically elevated, and point to term premia’s rise continuing.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 14:25 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:45:00 +0000 "Something Dangerous Is Happening In America" - Biden Warns Of Trump's "Extremist Movement", Blasts Republicans' Silence
"Something Dangerous Is Happening In America" - Biden Warns Of Trump's "Extremist Movement", Blasts Republicans' Silence
"Something Dangerous Is Happening In America" - Biden Warns Of Trump's "Extremist Movement", Blasts Republicans' Silence
Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)
President Joe Biden delivered a speech about democracy on Sept. 28 in Arizona, a key battleground state for the 2024 election. He took aim at his predecessor, President Donald Trump, and expressed concerns about a "dangerous" trend unfolding in the United States.
“As I’ve always been clear, democracy is not a partisan issue. It’s an American issue, ” President Biden said.
“But there is something dangerous happening in America. There is an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs of our democracy. The MAGA Movement.”
President Joe Biden gives a speech at the Tempe Center for the Arts on Sept. 28, 2023, in Tempe, Arizona. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
According to the White House, this is the fourth speech by the president focused on democracy.
President Biden began his speech by honoring the legacy of his late friend and colleague Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and announcing the creation of the McCain Library.
Mr. McCain's family and Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, were among those in attendance during his speech in Tempe, Arizona.
“I have come to honor the McCain Institute and Library because they are home to a proud Republican who put country first,” President Biden said.
“Not every Republican—not even the majority of Republicans—adhere to the extremist MAGA ideology. I know because I’ve been able to work with Republicans my whole career .
"But there is no question that today’s Republican Party is driven and intimidated by MAGA extremists. ”
The president delivered his speech a day after the second Republican debate in California, during which the candidates displayed no signs of narrowing the gap with former President Trump, the Republican frontrunner for 2024.
On Sept. 28, the House Oversight Committee held the first hearing of its impeachment inquiry into President Biden.
It focused on President Biden's potential involvement in his son's business dealings during his tenure as vice president under President Barack Obama.
The challenges don't end there for the 46th president. President Biden faces continued low approval ratings as the majority of Americans are unhappy with his handling of the economy.
In a mid-September NBC News poll, independent voters gave President Biden a dismal 36 percent approval rating.
More than 3 in 5 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would prefer a nominee other than President Biden, according to a recent Washington Post–ABC News poll.
'Silence Is Deafening'
President Biden spoke out against the former president’s recent social media post in which he accused the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, of committing treason.
President Trump suggested that Gen. Milley had colluded with China, a conduct he said would have once resulted in death.
"This is an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been death! " President Trump wrote on Sept. 22 on his Truth Social platform.
"Although I don't believe the majority of Republicans think that, the silence is deafening," President Biden said during his speech in Arizona. “Hardly any Republican called out such hated statements.”
He later urged Democrats, Republicans, and independents to stand up for democracy.
“Put our country first. We can't take democracy for granted,” President Biden said.
Ambassador Cindy McCain speaks prior to President Joe Biden’s remarks at the Tempe Center for the Arts in Tempe, Arizona, on Sept. 28, 2023. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
Prior to President Biden's speech, U.S. diplomat Cindy McCain, the widow of Sen. John McCain, took the stage and highlighted the friendship between her late husband and the president.
“President Biden and Mrs. Biden introduced me to my husband, and I'm so grateful for that ,” Ms. McCain said.
During his visit to Vietnam on Sept. 11, President Biden stopped by the John Sidney McCain III Memorial to honor his late friend and colleague, whose plane was shot down over Hanoi in 1967 during the Vietnam War.
“It was an emotional trip,” President Biden said in Arizona. “As I stood there, paying my respects, I thought about how much I miss my friend.”
A climate activist interrupted President Biden during his speech and urged him to take action against fossil fuels.
"I'll tell you what. If you shush up, I'll meet with you immediately after this. OK?" the president said.
Republicans criticized the president for refusing to visit the southern border.
“Today, President Biden is in Arizona, but instead of visiting the border to get a firsthand look at the crisis, he'll be at a campaign fundraiser,” Sen. Katie Boyd Britt (R-Ala.) wrote on Sept. 28 on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
“He can fly to his beach house on the weekends, but he can't fly less than 30 minutes to the border?”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 13:45 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:05:00 +0000 California Raises Minimum Wage For Fast-Food Workers
California Raises Minimum Wage For Fast-Food Workers
California Raises Minimum Wage For Fast-Food Workers
Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,
California's fast-food workers will see a wage boost to $20 per hour due to a legislation signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday.
The wage increase will be effective from April 1, 2024. It will apply to all employees who work at restaurants that have at least 60 locations across the country. However, restaurants that make and sell their own bread don't have to abide by the new minimum wage.
Assemblymember Chris R. Holden (D-Pasadena) sponsored the bill, AB 1228. It allows the Fast Food Council to establish the minimum wage for fast-food restaurants, and suggest guidelines for other aspects like health and safety standards, and training.
The wage increase makes California the state with the highest guaranteed base salary in the fast-food industry.
The average hourly wage for fast-food workers in California in 2022 was $16.21. Currently, they earn an average of $16.60 per hour, or just over $34,000 per year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This figure is below the California Poverty Measure for a family of four—a statistic calculated by the Public Policy Institute of California and the Stanford Center on Poverty and Equality that accounts for housing costs and publicly-funded benefits.
California's minimum wage for all other non-fast food workers already earn one of the country's highest minimum wages at $15.50 per hour .
"California is home to more than 500,000 fast-food workers who—for decades—have been fighting for higher wages and better working conditions," Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, said in a statement Thursday.
"Today, we take one step closer to fairer wages, safer and healthier working conditions, and better training by giving hardworking fast-food workers a stronger voice and seat at the table.”
At an event in Los Angeles, Mr. Newsom dismissed the popular view that fast-food jobs are meant for teenagers to have their first experience in the workforce.
“That’s a romanticized version of a world that doesn’t exist,” he said.
“We have the opportunity to reward that contribution, reward that sacrifice and stabilize an industry.”
A "Now hiring" sign is displayed on the window of an IN-N-OUT fast-food restaurant in Encinitas, Calif., U.S., May 9, 2022. (Mike Blake/Reuters)
The law sets up a council to review and consider annual wage hikes until 2029, based on either a 3.5 percent increase or the U.S. Consumer Price Index's average change for urban and clerical workers, whichever is less.
Mr. Newsom's signature highlights the influence of labor unions in California, which have been trying to get fast food workers higher pay.
The move also settles a conflict between labor unions and fast food businesses about how to regulate the industry. The deal they reached means that in return for better wages, labor unions won't try to blame fast food brands for any wrongdoings by their independent franchise operators in California. In turn, fast food businesses agreed not to bring the worker wage issue up for a referendum in 2024.
“That was a tectonic plate that had to be moved,” Mr. Newsom said, referring to what he said were the more than 100 hours of negotiations it took to reach an agreement on the bills in the final weeks of the state legislative session.
Mary Kay Henry, the head of the Service Employees International Union International, said the new law reflects a decade of efforts, including some 450 strikes across the state over the past two years.
California politicians are now focusing on other sectors and have recently passed a bill to progressively raise the minimum wage for healthcare workers to $25 per hour.
The federal minimum wage in other sectors has been unchanged at $7.25 an hour since 2009, which is equivalent to $15,080 a year for a person who works 40 hours a week.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 13:05 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 16:45:00 +0000 Putin Crowns New Wagner Chief, Tasked With Sending Fighters Back To Ukraine
Putin Crowns New Wagner Chief, Tasked With Sending Fighters Back To Ukraine
The future fate and leadership of PMC Wagner has become clearer on Friday, following the Aug. 23 death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and much of his senior leadershi
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Putin Crowns New Wagner Chief, Tasked With Sending Fighters Back To Ukraine
The future fate and leadership of PMC Wagner has become clearer on Friday, following the Aug. 23 death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and much of his senior leadership when their private plane went down outside Moscow while en route to St. Petersburg. It is believed that either a bomb was detonated, or it was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile.
The lingering question since then has centered on who will take command of Wagner, and whether it will remain a private entity, or possibly be broken apart. Those questions appear to have been at least partially answered with Putin's Friday Kremlin meeting with Andrei Troshev, among the most senior ex-commanders of the Wagner mercenary group and former aide to Prigozhin .
Andrey Troshev, a senior Wagner commander, in 2016. Via Kremlin.ru/Reuters
"President Putin asked Mr Troshev to oversee volunteer fighter units in Ukraine," the Kremlin said , in the clearest indicator to date that Wagner fighters will be returning to the Ukraine battlefield in large numbers .
Importantly, the Kremlin also confirmed that Troshev now works for the defense ministry , according to spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and will coordinate reintegration of Wagner fighters with Russia's armed forces on a voluntary basis.
Putin has additionally told Troshev he could "volunteer units that can perform various combat tasks, above all, of course, in the zone of a special military operation" - referring to Ukraine.
"You know about the issues that need to be resolved in advance so that the combat work goes in the best and most successful way," Putin added.
There were indicators even before Prigozhin's death, but following the June mutiny, that Troshev would be given control of Wagner under defense ministry oversight. At the time, the following backgrounder was released by US media :
Sedoy is the call sign of Andrey Troshev, a retired Russian colonel and a founding member and Executive Director of the Wagner Group , according to sanctions documents published by the European Union and France.
European Union sanctions concerning the situation in Syria detail Troshev’s position as the chief of staff of the Wagner Group operations in Syria , which supported the Syrian regime.
Troshev was born in April 1953 in Leningrad, in the former Soviet Union, according to the EU sanctions from December 2021.
“Andrey Troshev is directly involved in the military operations of the Wagner Group in Syria. He was particularly involved in the area of Deir ez-Zor,” it added. “As such, he provides a crucial contribution to Bashar al-Assad’s war effort and therefore supports and benefits from the Syrian regime.”
Earlier this week, CNN had cited Ukrainian military sources to say that Wagner fighters have been redeployed to the battlefield in Ukraine , but this time under the regular Russian military command.
Hundreds of Wagner fighters have reportedly already appeared in the east, according to the Ukrainian sources. The last time the Ukrainians had seen them in significant numbers was after Wagner units had handed control of Bakhmut in the east over to the Russian regular armed forces.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 12:45 Close
Fri, 29 Sep 2023 16:20:00 +0000 Life In America Has Never Been More Unaffordable Than It Is Right Now
Life In America Has Never Been More Unaffordable Than It Is Right Now
Life In America Has Never Been More Unaffordable Than It Is Right Now
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
Our standard of living is being systematically destroyed , but for a lot of years many Americans didn’t fully understand what was taking place because it was happening so slowly. But now we have reached a stage where the purchasing power of our money is collapsing and the cost of living has become exceedingly painful. Thanks to our rapidly rising cost of living, the middle class is becoming “the impoverished class” , and the poor are increasingly being pushed out into the streets. If we do not find a way to turn these trends around, it won’t be too long before we have tremendous societal turmoil on our hands.
Earlier today, I came across an article about a woman that found a receipt from Burger King that was dated August 10, 1986.
At that time you could buy a Whopper for just $1.54.
Today, that same Whopper will cost you $6.79 …
A woman has been left stunned after discovering a retro Burger King receipt from the 1980s which reveals the staggering price increases that the fast food chain has implemented over the past four decades.
US-based Liza took to social media to share the receipt after her mother found it in a box in the garage while remodeling her home.
The faded paper from the fast food chain dates back to August 10, 1986, and lists three Whopper burgers purchased for $4.62 – which works out at $1.54 each.
A single Whopper burger currently costs $6.79 in today’s money – over four times the price listed on the vintage receipt.
In other words, if you had $6.79 back then, you could buy four whoppers and you would still have money left over.
This is what inflation does.
It destroys our purchasing power.
Another woman named Melanie that makes 34 dollars an hour is so stressed financially that she literally tries to make one loaf of rye bread last her for the entire week …
“What I’ve started doing is I buy a loaf of rye bread, and I work really hard to keep that one loaf of rye bread lasting me the whole week. And I eat peanut butter, so I’ll eat peanut butter toast whenever I’m hungry.”
In the old days, if you were making 34 dollars an hour you were living the high life.
But now most people making 34 dollars an hour are just barely scraping by from month to month.
Of course it isn’t just food that has become absurdly expensive.
At this point, homes in the U.S. have never been more unaffordable than they are right now.
The following was recently posted on Twitter by The Kobeissi Letter …
Inflation adjusted home prices are now 85% above their average dating back to 1900.
Even after accounting for inflation, home prices have never been more expensive than they are now.
In fact, inflation adjusted home prices are now 20% above their 2008 peak, the previous all time high.
The median home now sells for an alarming 530% of the median annual income.
Meanwhile, the median house payment is now a record 49% of median PRE-TAX income.
Affordability has never been worse.
We have never seen anything like this in the entire history of our country.
Since the beginning of 2019, the median price of a home in the U.S. has risen by more than a hundred thousand dollars …
In fact, comparing present prices to levels before the virus panic, St. Louis Fed numbers show a median priced U.S. home rose from $313,000 in the beginning of 2019 to $416,000 today.
Rental prices have gone completely nuts as well.
As I discussed last week , the median asking rent in the United States is now over $2,000 a month .
Over the past couple of years we have seen unprecedented rent hikes, and vast numbers of renters have been getting the boot.
In fact, we are seeing a tsunami of evictions in the Los Angeles area right now…
With COVID-era protections gone, the number of renters facing eviction in Los Angeles continues to climb by the thousands each month.
From February through the end of August, approximately 50,000 eviction notices were filed by landlords in the city, according to figures released on Monday by the L.A. Controller’s Office.
A spokesperson said 96% of them involve non-payment of rent, and landlords were owed $186.5 million collectively.
So where will all these people go?
If they are young enough, perhaps they can live with their parents .
But many will not have that option.
Up to this point in 2023, homelessness in the United States has been rising at the fastest pace ever recorded, and a lot more Americans will find themselves without a home between now and the end of the year.
Meanwhile, those that are still scraping by will find it harder and harder to make ends meet.
The average rate of interest on our credit card balances has risen from about 16 percent in February 2022 to more than 22 percent today .
As a result, an increasing number of Americans find themselves unable to keep up with their payments, and it is being reported that credit card losses are rising at the quickest rate since the last financial crisis …
Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs.
Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it’s an increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of 2008.
It is far from over, the firm predicts.
More Americans are going bankrupt as well.
In fact, the number of bankruptcy cases in August 2023 was 18 percent higher than it was in August 2022.
Millions upon millions of Americans have been turning to debt in order to keep up with the cost of living, but as economic conditions deteriorate financial institutions are starting to get much tighter with their money.
So we are moving into a time when U.S. consumers will find it much more difficult to take on new debt…
Nearly 60% of the respondents in a New York Fed consumer expectations survey said it’s harder to get credit cards, mortgages and other loans than it was a year ago. It was the highest level since the New York Fed started the data series back in 2013.
Another Fed survey of loan officers reveals their fears aren’t unfounded. Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all consumer loan categories and all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. Meanwhile, the number of banks reporting tighter standards for credit cards rose by 36%.
Banks have also significantly tightened standards for business loans.
This is a recipe for disaster.
That is definitely true.
Without a doubt, this is certainly a recipe for disaster.
But there is no going back now.
In fact, the rising price of oil is going to cause enormous inflationary pressures throughout our entire economic system in the months ahead.
On Tuesday, a senior market analyst at OANDA warned that it appears that “nothing is going to get in the way of this oil price rally” …
“It looks like nothing is going to get in the way of this oil price rally,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, in emailed comments on Tuesday. “Energy traders know a bullish trend when they see one and it will take a lot more than a strong dollar, softer Russian ban, and weakening demand, to disrupt this rally.”
When the price of oil reaches 100 dollars a barrel, that will be painful, but we can handle that.
But the chief executive of Continental Resources is projecting that the price of oil could eventually reach 150 dollars a barrel …
That’s Doug Lawler, chief executive of Continental Resources, the shale-drilling giant controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, telling Bloomberg News on Monday that crude prices are set to remain elevated and could press to the $120- to $150-a-barrel range without new production.
More price pressure is coming, he said, unless policies are put in place to encourage more output.
If the price of oil reaches 150 dollars a barrel and stays there, it will be an unmitigated disaster for our economy, and the cost of just about everything will jump substantially.
That is because just about everything that we buy and sell has to be transported.
We need cheap energy in order to have a high standard of living, but unfortunately the era of cheap energy is coming to an abrupt ending , and that means that none of our lives will ever be the same again.
I kept warning my readers that a lot of the long-term trends that I have been writing about would catch up with us eventually, and now that time has arrived.
So enjoy the current economic conditions while you still can, because they will soon go from bad to worse.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here .
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/29/2023 - 12:20 Close