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Tue, 19 Mar 2024 11:45:00 +0000 In Ukraine, Graham Urges Expanded Conscription Despite Mounting War Fatigue
In Ukraine, Graham Urges Expanded Conscription Despite Mounting War Fatigue
On his latest of far too many visits to Ukraine, Sen. Lindsey Graham on Monday urged legislators to expand the pool of citizens subject to being dra
Read more.....
In Ukraine, Graham Urges Expanded Conscription Despite Mounting War Fatigue
On his latest of far too many visits to Ukraine, Sen. Lindsey Graham on Monday urged legislators to expand the pool of citizens subject to being drafted and thrown into the country's losing war against Russia, saying, "We need more people in the line."
The Ukrainian military accepts voluntary enlistments from those 18 and older. However, in stark contrast to Americans' experience with military drafts, Ukraine exempts men under 27 from being conscripted. Since December, the country's legislature has been considering lowering the minimum draft age to 25, to meet the military's projected need for upwards of a half-million more soldiers.
“I would hope that those eligible to serve in the Ukrainian military would join. I can’t believe [conscription age starts] at 27,” Graham told the press. “You’re in a fight for your life, so you should be serving — not at 25 or 27.”
Of course, Ukrainians are generally only "fighting for their lives" once they're shipped east to fight an American-cultivated proxy war over territory that, as David Stockman puts it , "has been either a Russian vassal or appendage for centuries and where the term 'Ukraine' actually means 'borderlands' in Russian."
On a trip to Ukraine last May, Graham gleefully crowed that "the Russians are dying" and that aid to Zelensky's government is "the best money we ever spent."
For at least a decade, Graham has been a chief Senate cheerleader for military aid to Ukraine. In February, however, he made an abrupt about-face, opposing the latest White House request for outright aid and instead embracing former President Trump's position that future help should come in the form of loans . “I talked to President Trump today and he’s dead set against this package,” Graham said on the Senate floor when announcing his momentous opposition to a $60 billion aid bill.
In Kiev this week, Graham reiterated his advocacy of loans:
“I was very direct with President Zelensky. You can expect me to always be in your corner, but it’s not unfair for me to ask you and other allies: Pay us back down the road, if you can. I think the loan idea is going to be pretty popular, not just among Republicans but also among Democrats.”
Graham's "if you can" qualifier speaks volumes, signaling a coming bait-and-switch. He is advocating "no-interest, waivable" loans . The odds they'll ever be paid back are vanishingly small. In the present, however, the structure gives some cover to politicians facing an American electorate increasingly fed up with throwing money at a war that has nothing to do with US interests.
On a 2022 trip to Kiev, Senators Blumenthal and Graham presented Pres. Zelensky with a framed copy of the resolution they introduced to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terror (Graham's press office)
With new aid of any kind still stalled -- except for the Biden administration resorting to creative accounting maneuvers to magically scare up another $300 million last week -- Graham told reporters on Monday that he was “more optimistic than I’ve ever been that something will get out of the House pretty soon.”
At the same time, Graham told Ukrainians, "No matter what we do, you should be fighting. No matter what we do, you’re fighting for you." In addition to having postponed elections, the purported beacon-of-freedom Ukraine forbids men between age 18 and 60 from leaving the country.
Graham is among the most relentless and reckless of DC warmongers, as a sampling of ZeroHedge headlines from just the last year confirms:
He isn't quite a full-fledged chickenhawk: He served 33 years as an Air Force and USAF Reserve officer -- but as a lawyer. His mobilization for the first Gulf War saw him dispatched not across the world but to a National Guard base in his home state of South Carolina where he churned out wills for service members deploying to the war zone.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 07:45 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 11:20:00 +0000 BODEN & TREMP - The Memecoins We Deserve For Financializing Attention
BODEN & TREMP - The Memecoins We Deserve For Financializing Attention
BODEN & TREMP - The Memecoins We Deserve For Financializing Attention
Via FinTech Blueprint,
Today we highlight the following:
DIGITAL ASSETS: Solana's soaring memecoins and the echoes of King Lear's fool
CURATED UPDATES: Financial Institutions and Adoption; DeFi and Digital Assets; Blockchain Protocols; NFTs, DAOs and the Metaverse
DIGITAL ASSETS: Solana's soaring memecoins and the echoes of King Lear's fool
In the world of finance (DeFi included), where fortunes rise and fall, there is a parallel to be drawn from the words of King Lear and his jester, the Fool.
Fool: If thou wert my fool, nuncle, I'ld have thee beaten for being old before thy time.
King Lear: How's that?
Fool: Thou shouldst not have been old till thou hadst been wise.
King Lear: O, let me not be mad, not mad, sweet heaven / Keep me in temper: I would not be mad!
The Fool may appear silly, weak, and powerless, but is in fact the truth-teller in a world of corruption and chaos. Stand-up comedians dare say that which would otherwise offend and divide. To joke and laugh is to explore the uncomfortable, and make our peace with it.
In a similar vein, Solana, has witnessed a surge of new memecoin launches boasting returns of up to 10,000%, and one wonders — what kind of animal spirits are in the air right now? Memecoins are the pure attention virus of the Internet, the distillation of ideas rendered in the minds of the online hive. They are the spear by which digital trolling penetrates mainstream culture.
A bit more context: Solana-based memecoins Bonk and dogwifhat experienced a stratospheric rise in value, with $BONK up 170% and $WIF (dogwifhat’s token) up 630% in the past month. The dogwifhat community even managed to rally and self-fund $690,000 in four days to showcase their token on the exterior of the new Las Vegas Sphere. Franklin Templeton is writing equity research on the topic.
$WIF is up 630%
Source
Most recently, 4chan quality politically-inspired memecoins like jeo boden , doland tremp , elizabath whoren , have reached market caps in the tens of millions. $whoren is up 300% since yesterday. If you are a “serious finance person”, you still have to look at this and understand it. This is the natural conclusion of the Gamestop saga, memes taking over not how we trade, but the underlying financial asset as well.
Source: Coinbase makes auto-websites based on coins, and this one is unfortunate
Source
In the midst of all this, a wide range of opinions has emerged. One idea connects these political memecoins to Friend.tech, a platform that primarily focuses on trading personal tokens, with social networking as a secondary priority. The argument suggests that even though tokens like tremp and boden may seem quite different from Friend.tech, they actually represent a second iteration of a similar concept. But in our view, this is more of a trading of celebrity rather than self-tokenization.
Source
And note that friend.tech is not a new idea. Do you remember BitClout? Probably not, given the transience of the memecoin landscape. And when we take a closer look at the assets that drove trading volumes in prior cycles, memecoin rallies — like Dogecoin or Shiba — were part of the story. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of similar case studies.
Number of unique contract deployers
Travis King , the Founder and CIO of Ikigai Asset Management, sheds light on this recurring theme by linking it to the rise of Financial Nihilism — an ideological standpoint that questions the value and legitimacy of financial systems, markets, and even the very concept of money. It is a useful perspective to consider when memecoins skyrocket by 10,000% and reach multi-billion dollar market caps in a matter of days. What’s the point of saving 5% in a bank account for years when an Internet troll can make that in a day.
The rise of financial nihilism can be attributed to (1) the lack of upward mobility makes the American Dream feel like a thing of the past for many, and (2) the perceived irresponsibility of the US government and Federal Reserve. As a result, people have to take bigger risks to achieve financial stability — gambling on the future is the only way to get there.
“You take bigger risks. You feel driven to take bigger risks to try and leapfrog from your current financial position (mostly paycheck to paycheck; buying a home feels nearly impossible; saddled with student loans; salary increases not keeping up expense increases) to something more tenable. More comfortable. More baller.
So you gamble. You. F**king. Gamble. You look anywhere, for anything, that can give you a 5:1, 10:1, 50:1 type of payout. Naturally, you look to literal gambling, which is growing at a breakneck pace-” - Travis King
Source
In a way, those who embrace financial nihilism are directly responding to, and mirroring, the monetary and fiscal policies of the Federal Reserve and the US government. According to Travis, this embrace has a significant impact on the price movements of crypto assets, and its influence seems to be growing even more pronounced. Just look at the national debt.
In our 2020 Long Take on the memetic infection of Finance , we touched upon this very topic. The analysis was largely inspired by Based Protocol , a DeFi game with a "vaporwave" aesthetic that made fun of the system. It's like the jester in King Lear, playfully mocking itself and its participants. Based Protocol’s Twitter account was a treasure trove of surreal memes sourced from Reddit, and it boldly labeled DeFi investors as degenerates. It poked fun at both traditional finance and DeFi, suggesting that money doesn't hold any real meaning and that it's all just a game where we compete against each other.
Based Protocol
Source
And while some people hope for a more rational crypto market, where valuation methodologies are based on reason, it is unlikely that these wishes will come true. The bubble will be bigger, followed by an even bigger collapse. As QwQiao puts it, “for now we enjoy the hyperbodenization.”
Source
Source
Source
If you have been in traditional finance for a while, you are familiar with animal spirits taking hold of the market. Today's meme / momentum investors see the AI boom — they don’t have to be focused on assets with strong balance sheets or high profitability, nor are they drawn to companies based on their earnings growth potential. Instead, they get caught up in the excitement of sending non-cash flow paying assets to the moon, even as risk-free rates remain at 5.25%.
But this is not new. We saw similar exuberance in 1999 and 2007, and 1929. What might be different now is this idea of perpetual animal spirits, driven by an upwards-drifting stochastic component that keeps them increasingly volatile over time. Forget the memory of (literally) yester-year, and behold Financial Nihilism.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 07:20 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 10:55:00 +0000 Visualizing Major US Banks By Commercial Real Estate Exposure
Visualizing Major US Banks By Commercial Real Estate Exposure
The six largest U.S. banks saw delinquent commercial property loans nearly triple to $9.3 billion in 2023 amid high vacancy rates and increasing borrowin
Read more.....
Visualizing Major US Banks By Commercial Real Estate Exposure
The six largest U.S. banks saw delinquent commercial property loans nearly triple to $9.3 billion in 2023 amid high vacancy rates and increasing borrowing costs.
Today, the sector is facing greater scrutiny from regulators amid growing risks to bank stability. In fact, for almost half of all U.S. banks, commercial real estate debt is the largest loan category overall. While commercial loans are more heavily concentrated in small U.S. banks, several major financial institutions have amassed significant commercial loan portfolios.
The above graphic shows the commercial real estate exposure of the top U.S. banks, based on data from UBS as of Q3 2023.
Top 20 U.S. Banks by Assets: Commercial Property Exposure
Here are the commercial property loans across the largest U.S. banks by assets as of the third quarter of 2023:
As the above table shows, JPMorgan Chase, America’s largest bank , has 12.6% of its loan portfolio in commercial real estate.
Despite commercial property troubles, the company witnessed record stock prices in 2023, with its share price increasing 27% over the year. The bank acquired First Republic at the height of the U.S. regional banking turmoil in 2023, which helped boost performance.
Still, big banks remain cautious. Several major banks, such as Wells Fargo, are building bigger cash reserves for commercial property credit losses as a buffer for potential defaults.
Perhaps the most concerning big bank is New York Community Bancorp, which has 57% of its total loans exposed to commercial property debt. The bank reported a $2.7 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2023, and Moody’s recently downgraded its credit rating to “junk” status. The bank brought in a $1 billion infusion of capital as a lifeline after growing concerns about the state of its commercial real estate loan portfolio.
Overall, while pockets of trouble are surfacing, major banks are more insulated from commercial property shocks compared to other banks. On average, about 11% of big banks loan portfolios are concentrated in commercial real estate compared to small banks, where average exposure falls around 21.6% of loans.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 06:55 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 10:30:00 +0000 US Economic Conditions Scream "Buy Gold"
US Economic Conditions Scream "Buy Gold"
US Economic Conditions Scream "Buy Gold"
Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Epoch Times,
The manufacturing and consumer confidence weaknesses of the United States are deeply concerning , particularly considering that all those allegedly infallible Keynesian policies are being applied intensely .
Considering the insanity of deficit spending driven by entitlement programs, the decline in the headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in March—from 76.9 to 76.5—is even worse than expected. Let us remember that this index was at 101 in 2019 and has not recovered the brief bounce shown by the reopening effect in March 2021. Consumer confidence is still incredibly low, and a decline in the expectations index fully explains the most recent decline. Persistent inflation, high gas prices, and declining real wages may explain the poor expectations of the average citizen. Furthermore, this poor consumer confidence reading comes after poor control group retail sales last month.
No, this is not a strong economy. The consumer confidence index, labor participation, and unemployment-to-population ratios, as well as real wage growth, remain significantly below the pre-pandemic level, and this after $6.3 trillion in new public debt that will likely reach $8 trillion by the end of 2024.
The manufacturing weakness of the United States is also a problem because this should be a period of high growth, considering the opportunities generated all over the world. Industrial output bounced 0.8 percent in February, but the January figure was revised to a larger 1.1 percent slump. If we factor in the decline in the Empire State survey, to -20.9 in March, it looks like the manufacturing decline will persist.
The shape of the U.S. economy also reflects the impossibility of the soft-landing narrative. Inflation remains well above target, and bond yields are reflecting the reality of persistent inflation. Furthermore, money supply growth stopped declining months ago.
If the money supply rises and government spending continues to rise, the Federal Reserve will be unable to cut interest rates, and the impoverishment of citizens by a loss of purchasing power will continue.
This is the result of an insane fiscal policy that increases spending and taxes. Weak growth, manufacturing decline, and worsening consumer confidence.
Demand-side policies and Keynesian experiments are leaving a once-strong economy on the same path as the eurozone: stagflation. A warning sign should be the fact that the increase in public debt completely justifies the gross domestic product recovery.
This is the problem of extraordinary monetary and fiscal experiments. Governments embrace massive spending and debt monetization under the premise that they will implement control policies if the warning signs appear, but when they do, they never stop spending. Economists close to the government said that the administration would reconsider and adjust its budget if inflation rose, and alarm bells rang. Now we have heard all the alarm bells, and the administration continues as if nothing happened. The Inflation Reduction Act became the Inflation Perpetuation Act; the rise in government borrowing is now evident in the 10- and 30-year curve; and the private sector is in an obvious contraction.
Trusting governments to moderate spending after an expenditure binge is simply an extremely dangerous bet that always ends with worse conditions for citizens. Once they start, they cannot stop, and the inevitable end is higher taxes, weaker growth, lower real wages, and a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar. All the figures in the U.S. economy scream “buy gold” because the government will always prefer to destroy the currency than to moderate the budget deficit and government size in the economy.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 06:30 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 10:11:00 +0000 One Bank Sees Bitcoin At $200,000, While Ether Hits $14,000 As It Becomes JPMorgan's Favorite Crypto
One Bank Sees Bitcoin At $200,000, While Ether Hits $14,000 As It Becomes JPMorgan's Favorite Crypto
Many crypto skeptics laughed over a month ago when, back on February 5, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicted that Et
Read more.....
One Bank Sees Bitcoin At $200,000, While Ether Hits $14,000 As It Becomes JPMorgan's Favorite Crypto
Many crypto skeptics laughed over a month ago when, back on February 5, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicted that Ether (which was then trading in the low $2000s) would hit $4,000 by May, around the time the Ethereum ETF was to be approved.
They weren't laughing when we got there just one month later, and more than two months ahead of schedule.
They also laughed when back in January , Kendrick laid out his "high" case for bitcoin ETF accumulation - one which would justify a 2024 year-end price of $100,000 - as hitting 400,000 in early April, on their way to 1.32 million "coins" at year-end (or just 437,000 in the low case).
Fast forward to today - it's not even April yet - and already the nine new ETFs have accumulated a whopping 458,000 bitcoin, after net buying virtually every single day since the SEC authorized bitcoin ETFs.
Bottom line: of all sellside analysts, Kendrick has proven time and again to be one of the most accurate, which is why latest research notes - one on bitcoin, and on ether - published earlier today, should be required reading for anyone following the crypto sector.
In his first note, available to pro subs in the usual place, the Standard Chartered analyst writes that his latest forecast is for the price of bitcoin - now beyond the upcoming halving - to end 2024 around USD150k (up from a long held USD100k view). Then, "in 2025 bitcoin will overshoot to a cycle high of $250k before ultimately settling around $200k which will then be the new midpoint of a higher trading range. At that time vol will fall, and so will the rate of ascent of bitcoin."
How/why will we get there?
Taking a deserved victory lap, Kendrick writes that "ETF inflows have been almost exactly as I had predicted, huge, but much greater than others had expected." Indeed, the ytd inflows are bang in the middle of his previous high/low forecast range discussed here , and so suggest we end up somewhere around $75BN of inflows. At that point, the gold ETF story suggests we will be around $200k and that we then trade sideways in a higher trading rage (ie. The ETF inflows are a one-off re-rating higher ).
Kendrick also notes that "a gold v BTC portfolio optimization suggests we should be around 80%/20% rather than the current 91%/9% spilt. Again that points to the USD200k level as being ‘correct’." He explains why below:
The total market cap of all above-ground gold is currently around USD 14.8tn (212,582 tonnes based on World Gold Council data, at the 15 March price of USD 2,160 per ounce). For BTC, the current price gives a market cap of USD 1.4tn – a split of 91% for gold to 9% for BTC. Assuming the gold price stays unchanged, the BTC price would need to increase to USD 190,000 in order for BTC’s share to rise to the 20% indicated by our portfolio optimisation. Again, this is close to our estimated BTC price level of USD 200,000 based on ETF inflows.
The analysis focuses some more on comps to the gold market, before turning to another potential source of bitcoin price upside: FX reserves, i.e., "another large sticky (potential) cash pool, which could follow in the footsteps of new US pension money." Specifically, Kendrick says that US and EU sanctions on Russia’s reserves "have structurally increased the appeal of non-standard reserve assets for FX reserve managers. The most obvious beneficiaries of this are gold and the CNY, but digital assets could also benefit" (as they already have in El Salvador where Nayib Bukele has previously purchased over 5,600 bitcoin). If they do, expect the largest and most liquid assets – such as Bitcoin – to receive most of the inflows. Which is why, the Standard Chartered analysts sees "a rising likelihood that large reserve managers (Figure 7) may announce BTC buying in 2024."
That pretty much covers the bullish bitcoin case; now what about Ethereum?
Well, a couple points here. First of all, recall that in recent years, Wall Street has traditionally held ethereum, due to its smart contract nature and flexible architecture in much higher regard than bitcoin. None other than Goldman Sachs said, three years ago when it initiated coverage on the crypto sector, that bitcoin is a good asset, and "ironically" will be used as the "scarce resource" to make PoS systems work "instead of natural resources", but while bitcoin may end up being a one-trick pony (if quite valuable) it is the new blockchain platforms - like Ethereum - that will serve as the basis for a "large market of trusted information ", as Goldman puts it "like Amazon is for consumer goods today " (Pro subscribers can find the full Goldman report can be found in the usual place ).
But it's not just Goldman: none other than the most important man in the world of finance (sorry Jamie Dimon), the head of Blackrock - which buys and sells ETFs, bonds, and any other asset class at the Fed's bidding - Larry Fink, said he is backing an ether ETF just after the SEC gave approval to Bitcoin. Specifically, the king of Wall Street, said "I see value in having an Ethereum ETF. These are just stepping stones towards tokenization and I really do believe this is where we're going to be going. " And whatever Larry sees, and wants, Larry gets.
That said, with just 2 months left until the SEC is expected to greenlight Ethereum ETFs, some are skeptical that the regulator will be as "forthcoming" this time as back in January with bitcoin, most notably Bloomberg's ETF guru Eric Balchunas who gives just 35% odds of an Ethereum ETF being approved in May, as "we’re 73 days from the final deadline, and there’s been no contact or comments from the SEC to the issuers. That’s not a good sign... The SEC has to give comments and the issuers have to work on correcting them. They may have to refile and they might even want to have a couple of meetings — it’s kind of a long process."
Needless to say, Standard Chartered's analyst Geoffrey Kendrick does not agree, and just as he sees much more upside to bitcoin, he sees even more potential gains for ether, which last week quietly and successfully implemented its long-awaited Dencun upgrade, thanks to which ETH is now as competitive as Solana in terms of transaction costs, via layer 2s.
But that is hardly a value proposition (just don't tell it to all those who are currently blowing Solana NFT memecoin bubbles which will burst spectacularly in a few days, assuming the centralized database that is Solana doesn't collapse - as it tends to do every other month - first). What is of potential value, is that ether ETF approval is coming one way or another, and according to Kendrick, the SEC will do so on May 23, the final deadline for the first batch under consideration, and consistent with the timeline for the SEC’s January 2024 approval of Bitcoin ETFs: "Albeit I note this is now a non-consensus view. I think the process should be the same as it was for the BTC ETFs and I don’t see why the SEC would not approve " especially since in the UK, the LSE announced on 11 March that it would accept applications for ETH and BTC ETFs, which Kendrick's think increases the chances of US approval.
What happens then? Well, if the ETH ETFs are approved, Doug estimates $15-45BN - or 2.39-9.15 million ETH - in the first 12 months after approval, using the same logic as he applied to the BTC ETF inflows; importantly, he now sees more price upside than he previously did, and believes that ETH would keep pace with BTC, with the current 5.4% price ratio holding for the rest of 2024: "Given that we now see BTC reaching the USD 150,000 level by end-2024, this would imply a level of USD 8,000 for ETH " or just more than double from here.
But the real value of ETH will shine in 2025 when Kendrick expects the ETH-BTC cross to track higher, back to 7%, as real world use cases on ETH - the same ones laid out by Goldman - start to take shape. This, he believes, "will see ETH to USD14k by year-end 2025 . " There could be more gains: the report goes on to note borrow heavily from the Goldman ETH initiation report above, and states that...
"If real-world use cases start to take practical shape before the end of 2025 (we see gaming as the most likely), then we think markets will start to see ETH as the digital assets version of a big tech stock. Indeed, we see several crossovers between tech and ETH, but because tech (most recently via AI) is already visible to end-users, it has taken most of the limelight so far. We expect that to change over time in favour of ETH, which is effectively a behind-the-scenes technology solution. This is because ETH’s smart contract platform enables future applications in much the same that Apple’s iOS system enables the building of apps.
In that scenario, we see the ETH-BTC price ratio rising back to the 7% level that was in place for 18 months from mid-2021 to end-2022. This would present further upside to our estimated USD 14,000 price level by end-2025."
Impossible, you say, no way ETH rises 4x from its current price of $3,500. Perhaps, but consider the potential rise in use cases in the aftermath of the Dencun upgrade which has sent the cost of layer 2 transactions as cheap as Solanas. As a result, Kendrick believes that ETH’s use cases will "evolve towards gaming and tokenization, adding significant demand via the existing NFT and DeFi channels, respectively. Importantly, this should provide ‘proof of concept’ examples in which real-world industries come on-chain to exploit the benefits of Ethereum over their existing setups. We expect significant developments on these fronts by 2025-26."
Tokenization of real-world assets has begun, but it is small so far . The largest is stUSDT (staked USDT, Figure 4) on the Tron network. Returns for stUSDT are driven by US Treasury yields. The others, which are primarily built on Ethereum, are shown in Figure 5. These offer investors a mix of exposure ranging from front-end Treasuries (Ondo) to real estate (RealT);
Note, the Standard Chartered analyst is not the first to say the true value of ETH is in tokenization: initially it was Goldman, and most recently it was the king of Wall Street, Blackrock's Larry Fink, who as we noted above, said "I see value in having an Ethereum ETF. These are just stepping stones towards tokenization and I really do believe this is where we're going to be going."
But while Goldman and Blackrock betting on ETH would be effectively a home run, what would guarantee a trifecta would be the last major holdout joining the bandwagon, and that's precisely what happened last week when the bank - whose boss has been the most vocally skeptical of bitcoin in recent years - put its chips on ETH.
In a March 14 note on Coinbase (which hiked the price target from $95 to $150; full note available to pro subs in the usual place) from JPM's Ken Worthington, the crypto analyst echoed Goldman, Standard Chartered and Blackrock, and said that while "the focus of the cryptocurrency marketplace has been the net new money going into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the positive impact on Bitcoin token prices" it is "ethereum and its native token Ether as a substantial contributor to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and developer of blockchain technology ."
Specifically, JPM writes that "it sees see the progression along the Ethereum roadmap, including the Dancun upgrade, which occurred this week on March 13, as driving crypto development, which is a longer-term positive and discuss this further in this research."
Compare and contrast that with, well, anything that Jamie Dimon has said about Bitcoin.
There is much more in the full report, including a full fawning section on ETH (that appears to have been taken almost verbatim from the Goldman initiating coverage report)...
... but the bottom line is that while Bitcoin was the pioneer in Wall Street's institutionalization race, having seen the startling success of bitcoin ETF adoption, the financial titans including Goldman, Blackrock - and now - JPM, have set their sights on what comes next, which is something near and dear to the people who manage trillions: the fastest, cheapest and most effective way to tokenize everything, from information, to data, to money itself. And they have picked the token to do it with.
So keep a close eye on what happens on May 23 when the SEC is reportedly pushing hard against ETF approval for the second biggest digital asset: with all three of the largest US financial institutions pushing hard, any resistance will die a quick and painless death.
More in the full notes from JPM , Std Chartered and Goldman
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 06:11 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 09:45:00 +0000 Did The Used Rolex Watch Market Finally Bottom?
Did The Used Rolex Watch Market Finally Bottom?
In December, we asked if the secondary market for pre-owned Rolex and Patek Philippe watches was finally bottoming after a vicious bear market.
Did The Used Rolex Watch Market Finally Bottom?
In December, we asked if the secondary market for pre-owned Rolex and Patek Philippe watches was finally bottoming after a vicious bear market.
After four months of stabilization, the Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index , which tracks prices for the 50 most-traded watches by value on the secondary market, appears to have found at least a temporary floor between $33,800 and $33,600. The index has crashed 42% since reaching a high of $58,570 in March 2022 (during the Covid mania).
Demand for luxury used watches has cooled over the last two years. Luxury has plunged into turmoil because of soaring borrowing rates hammering demand for watches, purses, and jewelry. But ever since the Federal Reserve pivoted in the interest rate hiking cycle in December, prices of used Rolex Daytona, Patek Philippe Nautilus, and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak watches have been possibly bottoming:
Rolex Submariner
Patek Philippe Nautilus Stainless Steel Moonphase
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Jumbo Ultra Thin
Rolex Daytona
Rolex GMT-Master II Pepsi
The only issue for those attempting to bottom fish is if the Fed's policy shift was premature...
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 05:45 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 09:00:00 +0000 Council Orders London Fish & Chip Shop Owner To Remove British Flag Mural
Council Orders London Fish & Chip Shop Owner To Remove British Flag Mural
Council Orders London Fish & Chip Shop Owner To Remove British Flag Mural
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news ,
A fish and chip shop owner in London has been ordered by the local council to remove a mural featuring a Union Jack flag and the words “A Great British meal” from the side of his building after some locals complained it is “not appropriate for the area.”
The Daily Mail reports that the award-winning Golden Chippy in Greenwich received the removal order from the council after a “number of complaints about the mural” and the council deciding it constitutes an “unauthorised advert” in a “preservation area.”
Shop owner Chris Kanizi, who is from Cyprus, commented “It’s just something to put a smile on people’s faces. But the council said ‘this is a preservation area – you can’t have that and you’ve got to paint over it.'”
“They also said people had been complaining, but I don’t believe that. Everyone who has talked to me say they love it,” Kanizi added.
Local residents who were asked about it expressed support for the mural.
The council also previously forced Kanizi to remove a similar sign above the shop for the same reasons in 2016.
The owner has Kanizi has provided the council with pictures dating back to the 1940s, when the premises was a cafe, and included numerous large trade signs attached to the building.
Kanizi told reporters “I’m going to stick it out for as long as I can. They haven’t given me a date to paint over it yet, but they will.”
“I’ve got so many international customers. They all like taking a photo with the mural in the background,” he added.
Mark Simpson of the Reform Party visited the shop to express support.
Of course, it’s highly likely that some of the complaints are regarding the display of the British Union flag, which is now considered by many who live in the country to be some form of racist symbol.
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Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 05:00 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 08:44:00 +0000 Putin Warns Of 'Full-Scale WW3' If West Sends Troops To Ukraine
Putin Warns Of 'Full-Scale WW3' If West Sends Troops To Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin's election victory speech and Q&A with the press was full of familiar themes, but he used the occasion after capturing Read more.....
Putin Warns Of 'Full-Scale WW3' If West Sends Troops To Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin's election victory speech and Q&A with the press was full of familiar themes, but he used the occasion after capturing a record 87% of the vote to warn the US and Europe that a "full-scale World War III" is "possible" should any Western troops enter Ukraine .
The remarks came in response to a journalist's question on President Macron's recent statements saying he thinks sending troops to Ukraine should be a realistic possibility. Putin responded on Sunday: "I think anything is possible in today’s world and it’s clear to everyone that this would be one step from a full-scale World War III ."
Putin
But the Russian leader also emphasized that NATO military personnel are already present in Ukraine, with Russian intelligence having observed English and French at times being spoken on the battlefield. "There is nothing good in this, first of all for them, because they are dying there and in large numbers," he said.
Putin said, "It seems that France could play a role. All is not lost yet." Over the weekend French President Macron floated the idea of a Ukraine ceasefire during the Paris Olympics , which is set to take place from July 26 to August 11 of this year :
France wants Russia to observe a cease-fire in Ukraine during this summer’s Olympic Games in Paris , French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Ukrainian television on Saturday.
"This is a message of peace," Macron said, before a voiceover interpreter quoted the French president as saying that France is doing so in line with the spirit of the Olympic movement.
Putin appeared to respond to this overture, saying in his Sunday address: "I’ve been saying it over and over again and I’ll say it again. We are for peace talks, but not just because the enemy is running out of bullets ," Putin stated.
"If they really, seriously, want to build peaceful, good-neighborly relations between the two states in the long term, and not simply take a break for rearmament for 1.5-2 years."
The Kremlin followed up later with this exchange :
Commenting on the French President’s call for a ceasefire, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova urged Macron to stop weapon supplies to Ukraine, the TASS news agency reported.
Zakharova also said Macron should have proposed the same ceasefire to the sides of the conflict in the Middle East.
Putin elsewhere presented his re-election to another six year term as proof that the Russian populace stands behind him in defending Russia in the 'special military operation' in Ukraine. "Dear friends, it's a great pleasure this evening to be with members of my team, with members of my team, people who think alike, who have the same goals. But let's think about this word, where it came from, comrade in arms, or teammates." He stressed, "The votes of all citizens of Russia express the united will of the Russian Federation."
He juxtaposed his 'mandate' with the state of affairs in America. "The whole world is laughing at what is happening there," he said of the United States. "It is just a catastrophe — it is not democracy — what on earth is it?"
Putin was also asked about deceased opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died Feb.16 in a far northern prison of what was officially listed as 'natural causes'. Putin confirmed reports that a major prisoner swap with the West was about to happen just before his "sad" death. On this swap which had been in the works just days before Navalny's unexpected death, Putin explained: "I said: ‘I am agreed’. I had one condition — we exchange him but he never returns ."
Concerning the future of the war in Ukraine at a moment cross-border drone attacks have ramped up on Russian cities and energy infrastructure, Putin spoke of possibly establishing a major buffer zone . "I do not exclude that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, we will be forced at some point, when we deem it appropriate, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ in the territories today under the Kyiv regime," Putin said, but without giving further details.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 04:44 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 08:15:00 +0000 More Than Half Of Migrant Deaths Are From Drowning
More Than Half Of Migrant Deaths Are From Drowning
More Than Half Of Migrant Deaths Are From Drowning
At least 8,565 people died on international migration routes in 2023, according to data from the Missing Migrants Project of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). This marks the deadliest year on record, up 20 percent from one year before.
"These frightening figures collected by the Missing Migrants Project are also a reminder that we must take increased action to ensure safe migration for all, so that in ten years no people will be leaving their lives in search of a better one”, said Ugochi Daniels, IOM Deputy Director General.
As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, the Mediterranean is by far the deadliest route for migrants, having claimed the lives of at least 3,129 victims in 2023 alone. Last year, thousands of migrants also died in Africa (1,866), largely in the Sahara Desert and on the sea route to the Canary Islands, as well as in Asia (2,138), where hundreds of Afghans and Rohingya died after fleeing their homes.
You will find more infographics at Statista
More than half of the dead or missing are presumed to have drowned. 13 percent of the recorded deaths were linked to vehicle accidents or hazardous transport and ten percent were victims of violence.
The IOM writes that actual figures are likely far higher due to data collection challenges, citing remote locations such as Panama's Darien National Park as an example as well as maritime routes, where "invisible" shipwrecks occur.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 04:15 Close
Tue, 19 Mar 2024 07:30:00 +0000 UK Tells Ukraine To Focus On Targeting Crimea
UK Tells Ukraine To Focus On Targeting Crimea
UK Tells Ukraine To Focus On Targeting Crimea
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
British military officials advised that Ukraine should focus on defense in its ground fight against Russia in the east while focusing on targeted strikes against Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, The Sunday Times reported.
The advice was given when British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and UK Army Chief Antony Radakin visited Ukraine last week. The British officials said rather than attacking, Ukrainian forces should hold the line and pull back to more favorable ground if necessary.
UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps. Image: UK Ministry of Defence
"This will allow the Ukrainians to focus their efforts on the Black Sea and Crimea, where their forces, with the help of Western long-range missiles, have landed significant blows over the past six months," the report said.
A recording of a conversation between German military officers that was recently published by Russian media revealed that the UK has soldiers "on the ground" in Ukraine helping Ukrainian forces use Storm Shadow missiles , which have a range of 155 miles, making them capable of hitting targets throughout Crimea.
Attacks on Crimea have always been considered a red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the risk of escalation hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s Western backers from assisting with such strikes, as Storm Shadows have been reported to be used in multiple Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.
The UK has also helped Ukraine strike Russian ships in the Black Sea. Another recent report from the Times credited Radakin with helping "the Ukrainians with the strategy to destroy Russian ships and open up the Black Sea."
Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and territory inside the Russian mainland have increased since it’s become clear Ukraine has no chance of winning on the battlefield.
Poland's foreign minister earlier this month: NATO troops are already in Ukraine .
Since Russia captured the strategic Donetsk city of Avdiivka last month, Russian forces have been making steady gains in the east , and Ukraine is suffering from serious manpower and weapons shortages.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/19/2024 - 03:30 Close